Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



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