Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 300844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ADDED TO AVIATION SECTION

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PASS TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH ALONG WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SFC CONVERGENCE FROM WINDS TURNING
ONSHORE WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR ERN WI. OTHERWISE
EXPECT BROKEN CLOUD COVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AVA...AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE. RELATIVELY COOL BUT PLEASANT TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAKE COUNTIES WITH THE ONSET OF NELY WINDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE SWD THROUGH THE STATE TNT WITH COOL LOW TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH 850 THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA. SO COOL CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. 925
TEMPS IN LOW/MID TEENS WITH THE USUAL EAST/WEST GRADIENT IN
SURFACE TEMPS GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE 12Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN PRECIP WITH SHORTWAVE WAFFLING ESE ACRS
IA/NRN IL AND SRN WI. THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED DRIER LIKE THE OTHER
MODELS SO WILL GO WITH QUIET 14 POPS. OVERALL SURFACE/850 FLOW
CONTINUES TO HAVE ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH 925 TEMPERATURES RISING A
BIT DEEPER INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. SURFACE/850 HIGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE
EAST WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW NOTED. AGAIN...DUE TO THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOWING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH APPCH
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF A BIT
FROM THE 12Z RUN ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY AND HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER PER THE GFS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO BRING BEST FORCING
IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AREAS OF GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE OVER A WIDE RANGE
BUT ON AVERAGE BE FROM 3- 5SM BR. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY CONTRIBUTE TO BKN020-030 BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IMPROVING THE CLOUD COVER TO SCT CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FCST OVER FAR ERN WI
INCLUDING THE SE WI TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TNT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



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