000
FXUS63 KMKX 151524 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1024 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AHEAD. HIGH
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...

THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL SET UP SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION IS IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING.
925MB TEMPS GO FROM 22-23C AT 06Z THIS MORNING TO 14-15C AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF A BIT FROM PREVIOUS HIGHS...BUT STILL A VERY
PLEASANT DAY ON TAP. SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PASSING BY.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL AN AMPLIFIED...SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER WI ON THU. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN
THE MORNING NEAR THE LAKESHORE...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND.

THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN ON THU...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET...WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
THU/THU NIGHT ALONG AN 850MB WARM FRONT. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED
TO LATE THU NIGHT WEST OF MADISON FOR NOW.

INLAND TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THU...BUT LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

GENERAL 925-850MB WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SLOW-MOVING 500MB
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTHERN WI AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING CLOUDS. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND OVERALL FORCING WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM BEING SEVERE OR
LONG-LASTING. CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES SEEM LOW GIVEN DRY EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE TREND IS FOR DECREASING POPS.

CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT EAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL AS
IT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW TRIGGER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER AN INCH SUN-MON. EXPECT WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. THEN SHOWER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES OUT...WHICH MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC