Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250818
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
CONTINUING TO BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 850/700 MB RH LOWER A LITTLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THEREFORE ANY EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY...WITH
AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF MADISON CLOSER TO THE THICKER CLOUD
EDGE.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAW CLOSER. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
WELL EAST WITH SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED. 925 TEMPS NUDGE
UP A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEENS CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO BE LESS CU ESP
IN WRN CWA WITH 850 COLD POOL SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL MAY HANG ON ENOUGH IN THE EASTERN CWA TO KEEP MORE CU THERE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES WITH THE SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES
SHIFTING EAST. THIS WILL START A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A BIT
MORE WARMING. 925 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOWING
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION THAN THE GFS. THE GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHWARD AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH EXTENDED AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS INTO SRN WI. THE QPF IS MUCH MORE COPIOUS ON
THE GFS THAN THE OTHER MODELS. 850 LLJ SHOWS BETTER FOCUS MAY BE
TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LLJ/PLACEMENT OF 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE GFS HAS A MORE NORTHWARD FOCUS TO THESES FEATURES RESULTING IN
THE QPF BEING SKEWED NORTHWARD INTO SRN WI. WILL RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW AS EVEN THE SOUTHWARD FOCUS OF THE
GEM/ECMWF SHOW SOME LIGHTER WAA PRECIP INTO OUR AREA.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE AMPLIFICATION ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS
SHIFTS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BY MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS
ON TO PRONOUNCED RIDGING. WARMEST 925 TEMPS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW 20S CELSIUS RETURN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...850 MB TEMPS ONLY MODIFY UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
FOR TODAY SO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASING DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS...WITH
THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA.
GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT GUSTS SHOULD STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



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