Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271600
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...AND MOST AREAS WILL FAIL TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. BUMPED UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 3-4
KFT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL VEER NORTH-NORTHEAST AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS EASING BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAR SE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH...AND FLURRIES
INLAND...SHOULD END BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM AS BACK EDGE OF CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS TRACKING WELL WITH 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY 5 AM EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE WHICH COULD BE
BRUSHED BY LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS.

COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C TO -12C 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z
THOUGH THE COLDEST AIR STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT UPWARD
MODIFICATION WILL STILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND MAKING FEEL EVEN COLDER IN SPITE OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE
WEAK ONSHORE WIND WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 20.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT BUT WILL MOVE EWD FOR SAT
NT. UPPER RIDGING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 0.60 INCHES ON SUN AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
ON A 50 KT LLJ. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK INCLUDING
WARM ADVECTION AT THE JET LEVEL WILL FOCUS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION.
THE DEEP LIFT AND PCPN WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A QUICK 0.15-0.20
INCHES. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET SUN AM BUT THEN GOING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO WLY FOR LATER SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH MILDER TEMPS ARRIVING. FOLLOWED MAINLY
SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SRN WI/NRN IL TO UPPER MI. THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR TUE.
SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR WED AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVE ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
MILD TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BUT ALSO CHANCES OF RAIN. A WEAK FROPA IS
EXPECTED WED NT FOLLOWED BY WLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THU.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TRACKING BACK EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOWS THEY WILL CLEAR KMKE AND KUES BY 10Z...AND
KENW BY 12Z WITH VFR/TEMPO MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED 3-5K FT LAKE CLOUDS AT KMKE AND KENW WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASE TOWARDS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

 &&

MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WAVES
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS RIGHT AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF GALE FORCE LEVELS
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS NEED FOR A POSSIBLE
GALE WATCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



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