Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 192000
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
300 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday - Confidence...High
A ridge of high pressure nosing into southern WI is proggd to
shift to the east this period setting up a reinforcing surge of
warmer air. With 925 temps poised to reach back well into the
teens celsius, will see temps reach into the mid 70s.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Increasingly moist flow as surface cold front remains to our west.
Some showers are proggd to clip portions of the western cwa during
the day Saturday in the better moist advection region. Best rain
chances arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning as influence of
mid level trough and surface/850 millibar cold front move through.
Enough CAPE in the soundings to maintain the thunder mention. Some
showers may linger in the east into the afternoon hours on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Evolution of 500 millibar pattern shows variability amongst the
models as the ECMWF sends southern energy into the evolving
northern stream energy while the GFS is more progressive with the
northern stream energy. Both show decent cold advection in the
wake though the ECMWF has stronger cyclogenesis to our east with a
greater rain potential due to more pronounced def zone considerations.
GFS is drier. 925 temps drop to the single digits celsius Monday
night into Tuesday. Airmass chilly heading into Tuesday night
though too early to zero in on frost potential. Enough winds up
the column though surface progs suggest some easing of the winds
in low levels and some clearing in the western cwa that could
lead to some frost potential.

Wednesday and Thursday - Confidence...Medium
The GFS is quicker and a bit more robust on the return warming
this period. A frontal boundary is proggd to draw closer to
southern WI Thursday afternoon though models show this precip
staying either northwest or north of the CWA through Thursday.
Decent consensus for cold front passage Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR mostly SKC this period. High pressure
moves away with a return southerly flow setting up into Friday.
All in all very dry airmass to remain in place.

&&

.MARINE...Southerly winds will be on the increase Friday through
Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. So the expected
winds and resultant wave heights will likely necessitate the
issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the weekend probably Friday
night through Saturday night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Friday Night through Thursday...Collar



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