Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221753 AAC
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Clouds are stubborn to scatter out today, so did end up bumping
highs down just a tad. Still looks dry into the early evening
hours.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Stratus deck has been very stubborn to scatter this morning and
early afternoon. Starting to see more of a cellular nature per
satellite, so hoping for some improvement over the next couple
hours. Still think most places should be VFR by mid to late
afternoon.

Attention then turns to isolated to scattered storms possible late
evening into tonight as a weak wave and associated front move
through. Best chance will arrive by 03Z in the northwest, exiting
the southeast by around 8-10Z.

Should be a good amount of sunshine Sunday morning, with an
increase in mainly VFR cumulus late morning into the afternoon.
Could see a couple storms east of Madison during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 939 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017)

UPDATE...

Sunshine is beginning to poke through the clouds in the south, and
will likely eventually do the same in the north. Thus will leave
forecast high temps alone for now.

Models suggest dry weather through the remainder of the day, with
the next storm chances possibly holding off until later this
evening. Only have low precip chances left in the south and might
even cut these out given model trends and current regional
activity.

MARINE...

Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels this weekend into early next week. Patchy fog is possible
at times this weekend while the higher dewpoints stick around

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 657 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017)

UPDATE...

Rain moved out of southern WI. Thus, the flash flood watch was
canceled. We are still waiting to hear about the flooding
conditions in Lafayette County. The Flash Flood Warning remains in
effect.

Patchy fog and low clouds will gradually improve through
mid morning.

There is a weak wake low that developed over northern IL. South
wind gusts to 35 mph have been observed. It looks like these gusty
southerly winds will remain confined to the WI/IL border area.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

IFR ceilings will rise quickly this morning to MVFR and then VFR
by early afternoon. Expect scattered to broken skies all day.
There is only a small chance for thunderstorms toward southeast WI
this afternoon and toward Fond du Lac tonight, so did not mention
in TAFs.

Another round of patchy fog is expected early Sunday morning.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 401 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017)

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The rain is gradually diminishing from north to south as the low
level jet veers over northern IL. I left the southern tier of
counties in the flash flood watch since it`s still lightly raining
there. We heard that Lafayette County is having a lot of issues
with flooding right now, but no specific information. We will know
more after daylight. We will be extending the flash flood warning
for that county in a later update.

The morning will be quiet and cloudy across southern WI. Drier air
will be spreading into the area as the day goes on, although
lingering moisture in the low levels will lead more broken cloud
cover. The atmosphere is expected to be capped around 800 mb
today, so despite the 1000 j/kg of CAPE, thunderstorms are going
to be hard to come by. Kept a slight chance going in southeast WI
this afternoon.

A robust shortwave trough/upper low will track across lake
Superior tonight. The vorticity advection and associated trough
sliding through central WI may trigger a few showers and storms
tonight north of I-94. There is a Slight risk of severe with
steeper mid level lapse rates and 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE. Hail would
be the main risk.

The warm and humid air will persist over the area, with highs in
the lower to mid 80s today and lows tonight in the upper 60s.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

Didn`t focus too heavily on the extended given the ongoing flooding
concerns tonight. There is a small chance for a shower or storm on
Sunday as a weak cold front moves through. Thereafter, expect quiet
and dry weather on Monday and Tuesday, with high pressure in
control. Our next shot for showers and storms is on Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as a cold front sweeps through. High pressure
returns into Thursday morning, with shower and thunderstorm chances
returning later Thursday into Friday. Look for slightly below normal
temperatures on Monday into Tuesday, trending towards normal
thereafter.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Showers and a few thunderstorms may affect eastern and far
southwestern portions of the area for the next few hours.
Otherwise, light winds are expected overnight. Low ceilings down
to 600 feet or so are expected into early this morning, before
rising above 3000 feet this afternoon. Visibility values should
drop down to 1 to 2 miles at times between 09Z and 13Z Saturday as
well, possibly lower in low lying areas. These should improve
above 6 miles by middle to late morning as well.

There are small chances for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight across portions of the area. For now, left
mention out of TAFs due to low confidence. Light north to
northeast winds are expected Saturday, with light west winds
Saturday night. There is some possibility of low ceilings and
visibilities with fog once again later tonight. For now, not
confident enough to go with lower values at this time.

MARINE...

Fog is possible through mid morning. North winds will increase
Sunday night and Monday but are expected to remain below small
craft levels.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Sunday THROUGH Friday...SPM



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