Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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643
FXUS63 KMKX 202131
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Plume of moisture will continue to stream across SE WI well into
the evng...possibly a few hrs past midnight. This will only serve
to exacerbate the existing flooding. All rain will be out of the
state by early Wed mrng. Cold air will slowly filter into the area
overnight with temperatures steadily falling below freezing from
west to east. Depending on how long the rain lasts across far SE
WI and how quickly the cold air can make it that far east, there
may be a brief period of freezing rain in far SE WI around 06Z. At
this time, even if it does happen, it should not be a big deal
since the precip should be ending about the time it gets cold
enough to cause problems.

.LONG TERM...

Wednesday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring some sunshine and colder temperatures on
Wednesday, with highs a couple degrees below normal.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure will bring a
chance of rain/snow on Thursday, with only a little precipitation
expected. The low will then move through Thursday night into
Friday, bringing widespread light precipitation. Models continue
to show a warm layer aloft, with near or below freezing
temperatures at the surface. A prolonged period of freezing rain
is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing. This is worth keeping an eye on, as slick driving
conditions may be present for the Friday morning commute.
Temperatures are expected to warm enough Friday to melt any icing
by late morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

A stronger low pressure system is progged to move through later
Saturday into Sunday. This could bring some accumulating snowfall
to at least northwest portions of the forecast area, depending on
the track of the low. The majority of models would keep the precip
as mainly rain in the southeast.

A consensus of models suggests high pressure will result in mainly
dry weather for Mon/Tue. The ECMWF and Canadian are showing a wave
later Monday or early Tuesday though, which could bring a little
rain/snow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Scattered IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs assoc with the ongoing precip
will last thru the aftn across SE WI. Higher CIGs and improving
VSBYs should work in from the west thru the evng with conditions
improving to VFR overnight. Rain will linger across far SE WI
thru the evng. There could be a brief period of freezing rain
overnight across far SE WI along the back edge of the precip as
colder air filters into the area. Due to low confidence in this
scenario, did not include in the fcst attm. Winds will remain W
to NW thru the fcst prd potentially gusting 15-20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds have become westerly this afternoon should remain offshore
into Wednesday before becoming northerly. Winds may gust near
small craft advisory levels overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Rain will move out of the nearshore areas of southeastern
Wisconsin tonight.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ062>072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ046-
     047-056-057.

LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight and Aviation/Marine...BM
Wednesday through Tuesday...DDV



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