Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290910
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS TRIGGERED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING TSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
NEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON. THUS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG. FOR TNT...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SAT AM BUT PVA AND
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. SOME FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...MAINLY ISOLATED THOUGH...WITH PWS UP TO 1.6 INCHES AND
CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF 5-10 KTS WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE 30 KTS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN FOR TODAY INTO THE
EVENING BUT STRATUS OF 600 FEET TO 1.5 KFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
TNT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRISK AND GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD WITH HIGH WAVES QUICKLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


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