Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO 500 MB NVA
HELPED TO CLEAR OUT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH A DRY 700 MB
LEVEL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE WESTERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE GEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASE TEMPS TOMORROW INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN THE AFTERNOON.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A BAND OF 700 MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO S WI. INCREASED
POPS BY 18Z FRIDAY TO COINCIDE WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE. KEPT THESE
POP CHANCES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE 900 MB
LEVEL. WITH COLDER AIR NEAR THE 950 MB LEVEL...SOME MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WEAK TROF WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE EVENING. ANY PRECIP WITH IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
DIMINISHING WITH TIME. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE IT
ENDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER OF .01...SO LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE NOISY NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. THE MODELS SHOW A
WEAK SHORT WAVE CLIPPING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING...AT LEAST ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP. WE MIGHT SEE SOME FLURRIES OUT OF THE
OVERCAST SKIES. HIGHS STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

STILL NO SOLID CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THE MORE MEATY CLIPPER
COMING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD.
BUT...NOT AT ALL UNUSUAL FOR A CLIPPER. THE ECMWF HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE QPF AND IS THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND THE GFS. THE NAM/GFS HAVE A FAIRLY SIMILAR
SURFACE LOW TRACK RUNNING FROM EAU CLAIRE TO KENOSHA. THE ECMWF
TRACK JUST CLIPS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES BY. THE
BLENDED APPROACH WORKS WELL HERE WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10
TO .20. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THE AIR WILL BE COLDER...VERSUS THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THIS...IT
LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS UP TOWARD THE FOX VALLEY...LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS IOWA AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING AND PEAKING DURING THE MORNING.
WE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A TIME SOUTHWEST OF MADISON ON
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE PRECIP TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY REMAINING IN THE 20S. THAT/S COLDER THAN WHAT
WE/VE SEEN IN A WHILE...BUT MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY DUE TO MORE SHORT WAVES RIPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST PLACES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
NEAR 3 FT. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY WEAKEN BEFORE 06Z...INDICATING SCA
MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 06Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS



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