Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231600 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Strong 500 mb anticyclone will slide slowly to the east of the
region today into Sunday. This will keep the surface high
pressure system in the same general area. These features will
continue to result in very warm and humid conditions today and
Sunday. A southeast lake breeze is pushing inland toward Milwaukee
and Kenosha airports, and this will continue to push inland from
there this afternoon.

925 mb temperatures suggest highs should reach the lower 90s
inland, near record highs. The lake breeze should limit highs to
the middle to upper 80s near Lake Michigan. There may be some
diurnal cumulus development this afternoon.

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into Sunday. Lows should
remain mild, in the middle to upper 60s. Highs Sunday should be a
bit cooler, but still quite warm, with upper 80s forecast. A
southeast lake breeze is expected once again in the late morning
and afternoon near Lake Michigan.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...

Southeast lake breeze at 10 to 15 knots is expected into this
afternoon. This should bring waves of 1 to 2 feet. Light south
winds tonight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots with a lake
breeze late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Waves of around 1
foot are expected. Similar winds and waves are forecast for
Monday.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 542 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A lake breeze
will push inland, reaching KMKE by mid day and KENW/KUES by early
to mid afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 233 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The high pressure weather pattern remains locked in. 925mb temps
have cooled ever so slightly, so although temps may be a few
degrees cooler than yesterday, it will still be hot. We could see
another round of record highs achieved. Madison`s record is 90 and
the forecast is 91. Milwaukee`s record is 93, but the forecast is
around 90. Skies will remain mostly clear through tonight.

Sunday and Monday - Confidence...Medium to High
The unseasonable warmth will persist ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. The 12z ECMWF was bringing some precip in Monday
afternoon though the 00z run has backed off on this so expecting
much of the area being dry with some small chances in the far
west. Much of the are likely to remain dry Monday night as well.
the other models were holding things off until Monday night with
the better dynamics and low level convergence with the low
staying to our west. 925 temps both days will be in the low/mid
20s celsius so the highs should get be well into the 80s once
again.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Enough energy breaks down the mid level ridge with surface low
and frontal boundary helping to trigger off chances of shra/isold
tsra. The progs suggest the chance would linger into Tuesday
evening. The ECMWF is showing the fastest solution with a quicker
end time to rain chances.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
The low and associated cold front are proggd to shift off to the
east with high pressure taking hold. 925 temps drop off into the
teens celsius so a cooler and less humid airmass pushes in.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Medium
The pattern will be more fall-like with a pronounced northwest
flow aloft bringing in a more energetic regime. The most
pronounced trough arrives later Thursday night into at least part
of Friday. So will have shower chances both days. Both the GFS and
ECMWF show Friday as the coolest day with 925 temps down to single
digits celsius. So may see highs not getting too far above 60.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF
period. A lake breeze with southeast winds will kick in at KMKE
around mid day and a few hours later at KUES/KENW.

MARINE...Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
levels into early next week. Be alert for areas of fog, especially
north of Port Washington over the next few days. The very warm
and moist airmass will combine with the cooler waters of Lake
Michigan to help generate the fog from time to time.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wood
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Collar


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