Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 250207 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH STREAMER OF COLD 850 MB
TEMPS PINWHEELING DOWN OVER THE STATE BEHIND NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IF CLOUDS HOLD IN
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY MODIFY UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES FOR TUESDAY SO ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS. CU
RULE USING BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL DATA INDICATES SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA. GRADIENT WINDS TO BE LOWER
THAN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MONITORING PROGRESS OF VFR CLOUD DECK OVER STATE TO SEE IF IT
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER SOME MODEL
FORECASTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER/DECOUPLE INLAND
BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST FOR A WHILE LONGER WITH MIXING
CLOSER TO THE WARM LAKE UNDER THE CLOUD COVER.

850 MB TEMPS ONLY MODIFY UPWARD A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY SO
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS. CU RULE USING BOTH NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA INDICATES SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF VFR
CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA. GRADIENT WINDS TO BE LOWER
THAN MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 02Z AS WINDS
WILL HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED TO BELOW CRITERIA...THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

CORRECTED HEADLINE CODING AT THE BOTTOM

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. MAY HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUDS NORTHEAST INTO
TONIGHT TOWARD COOLEST AIR ALOFT. 925 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT...FALLING TO THE 7-9C RANGE. FORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS AND WIND TO KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
STILL...WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S
MOST PLACES.

EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TOMORROW AS TODAY. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DUE TO THE COOL AIRMASS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY...THOUGH WILL LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES MILDER...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. WE MAY STILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL CU
TO DEAL WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST. WINDS WILL
HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED.  OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A
BIT EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE NEVADA/UTAH AREA LATER TUESDAY...THEN UP AND OVER THE
BIG WESTERN RIDGE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REACHES THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THERE IS DECENT SFC CYCLOGENESIS. FROM HERE...THERE
IS PLENTY OF MODEL DISCREPANCY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE GFS NOT SO MUCH. AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
GOES INTO A WEAKENING/FILLING STAGE. THE EC/CANADIAN MAINTAIN A
STRONG ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE AND JUST WIPE OUT THE SFC LOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM AND IS AN OUTLIER. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TRENDS AND OVERALL LACK OF DEEP SUPPORT WITHIN THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM...I WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
SOME AREAS ARE LIKELY NOT GOING SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND SETS UP A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY TRENDS
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 80S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

MARINE...

GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. MAY
EXTEND THE EXPIRATION FROM 01Z TO 02Z...BUT OTHERWISE CURRENT TIMING
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.