Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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902
FXUS63 KMKX 182315
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
515 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...

Everything appears to be on track, with temperatures falling into
the 20s this evening.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Gusty winds are starting to settle down at this hour, but a few
gusts may persist into the evening. LLWS will be an increasing
concern this evening as well, with southwest winds remaining
rather strong right off the deck. VFR will persist through the
night.

Steady breezes will continue the first half or so of the day
tomorrow, before winds increase again in response to a passing
surface trough. LLWS will also be a concern late tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 335 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Saturday... Forecast confidence is High.

Gusty southwest winds will diminish around sunset this afternoon,
thus the threat of patchy snow-covered roads due to blowing snow
will diminish as well.

Milder air will gradually spread into southern WI overnight into
Friday on steady southwest winds. Some locations could hit 40. Mid
and high clouds are expected to be streaming across most of WI
Friday. We should see a burst of gustier southwest winds late Fri
afternoon into the evening with the passage of a surface trough
stemming from low pressure crossing southern Ontario.

Look for quiet and mild weather across southern WI on Saturday.
Light winds and highs around 40 with increasing clouds.

LONG TERM...

Saturday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

An amplified upper trough will drop into the western part of the
country. Resulting surface low pressure developing in the lee of
the Rockies will track through the Midwest including southern WI
Sunday and Monday. There is still uncertainty in the track of this
low, but southern WI is expected to get into the warm sector and
receive mainly rain from this event.

The hazardous time period for southern WI will be early Sunday
morning into the late morning when surface temperatures will still
be below freezing but warm advection will spread liquid precip into
the area from the south, out ahead of that surface low. Light
freezing rain or freezing drizzle is possible. With the warmer air
will come melting snow and therefore patchy fog.

Southern WI will have all rain by Sunday afternoon. I can`t rule
out a rumble of thunder, but the better instability and forcing
looks like it would be to our south and east, and it is also not
easy to pin down a time to add thunder to the forecast. No severe
storms are expected.

We should be in the dry slot on Monday, so expect periods of rain
and drizzle, along with fog. The wrap-around precip with falling
temperatures will arrive Monday night. Rain will transition to
snow as it tapers off. Accumulating snow is possible and more
likely northwest of Madison to Fond du Lac. This system is still a
ways out and details will change.

Wednesday and beyond... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Colder and drier air will settle back in for the middle of next
week. Another system with moisture will work into the region late
next week.

&&

MARINE...

Southwest winds are still gusting up to 25 knots, so I extended
the Small Craft Advisory until 6 pm. There may be a period of wind
gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range Friday evening once again.

Winds will become easterly by Sunday night. Look for high waves to
develop in the nearshore waters early next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday Night through Thursday...Cronce



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