000
FXUS63 KMKX 182057
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
EXTREME SC WI/NRN IL. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXERT INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOL READINGS.
925 TEMPS DO MODERATE TO 14-17C DURING THE AFTERNOON YIELDING SOME
INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE PERIOD IS POPS/WX THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN REGARD TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FROM E
MI TO THE EAST COAST LATE WED-THURS. DRY COLUMNS GENERALLY
PRESENTS IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH MOISTURE MAINLY SCANT UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN MORE MOISTURE BEGINS GETTING TRANSPORTED INTO
SOUTHERN WI. OF WHICH...THE GFS HAS A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION. MODELS
PROG A S/W TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX COMING ACROSS FROM
SOUTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN WI. VARYING DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF
VORT MAX THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE S/W DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

NAM AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
SAID S/W...LOW-LEVEL WAA...AND LOW Q-VECTOR DIVG IN THE
PERIOD...WITH PRECIP ABSENT FROM THE GFS AND GEM THURSDAY. WITH
THE GFS...DIFFERENCES COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO ITS PROGGED S/W
TROUGH NOT BEING AS ROBUST AND IT BEING A DRIER SOLUTION OVERALL.
MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...AND BROAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SAID S/W AND LOW-
LEVEL WAA. THUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THAT SPREADS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

THE INHERITED FORECAST ON FRIDAY APPEARED FINE IN REGARD TO POPS/WX
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE IN
THE PLAINS. FRIDAY THE LLJ FOCUSES ON SOUTHWEST WI WITH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL WAA AT 850-700 HPA. MOISTURE WILL BE IN SUPPLY WITH DECENT
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRESENT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
NAM...ECMWF...GEM ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO PRECIP
OCCURRING FRIDAY...THOUGH THE 6/18 12Z RUN OF THE GFS STANDS OUT
WITH NO QPF IN THE CWA. FEATURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST HERE
INTO THE WEEKEND...STARTING WITH THE MOVEMENT/SPEED OF THE WARM
FRONT. CURRENT THINKING CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO BE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...AND
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FRIDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 81 TO
77 FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A UNSETTLED AND WARM PERIOD CONTINUES WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO
GENERALLY BE FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. 500 HPA RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE NW US PUSHES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...A MERIDIONAL 500 HPA FLOW THEN DEVELOPS BY
TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD HELP
CONTINUE TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE MOIST AIR
MASS...INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND S/W TROUGHS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LINGERING MVFR CU FIELD ACRS SC/PORTIONS SE WI
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ET