Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 151932
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
232 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016
.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High
Moisture and instability will continue to increase late this
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching shortwave. Showers and
storms are expected to develop this evening, moving through
overnight. The southeast half of the forecast area will see the most
activity. The back edge of the the precip should exit the southeast
by around 5-7 am early tomorrow morning. Another weak wave may kick
off a few more showers tomorrow, mainly in the southeast where
deeper moisture will linger.
Temperatures will stay quite mild tonight for mid-October, likely
only falling to the low 60s. Temps aloft will be mild again Sunday,
but will probably not translate to highs as warm as they could be
given continued cloud cover. There does seem to be a better
potential for a few afternoon cloud breaks than today, but not
expecting much sun so kept temps away from the warmer end of
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is
A warm front will lift north of the area Sunday night, bringing a
chance of showers and possible thunderstorms to the northern
portion of the forecast area. The focus for better rainfall will
be over the nrn half of the state. Monday is tricky. Very warm
temps aloft would mean we could hit highs in the 80s if we get
into any decent sunshine, but right now it looks quite cloudy.
Therefore will stick with more modest mid to upper 70s. Also, will
hang onto some small pops north of Milwaukee and Madison, but
Monday may end up being dry and very warm for mid October. The
mild conditions will continue through Monday night.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
All the guidance is in agreement that Tuesday will be dry and mild
as low pressure lifts off to our northeast and we get under weak
By Wednesday, the GFS and the ECMWF diverge in important details
related to the evolution of the large mid level trough over the
middle of the U.S. at mid week. It should be noted they`ve come
into better agreement on the overall placement and trends. The GFS
had a big closed upper low over the rockies on yesterday`s runs,
but now they both have a fairly progressive and open trough moving
through, eventually closing off a low over the southeast U.S.
However, as this evolves, the ECMWF is more north with an embedded
wave moving through the larger trough Wed into Thursday. The EC
sets up a pronounced h8 baroclinic zone just south of
Wisconsin...developing quite a bit of rain along this region,
spreading across the southern 1/4 of Wisconsin Wed into Wed night.
This looks too far north based on the sfc and h8 features and it
is typical that the nrn qpf depiction is too far north. So, will
keep the dry look for Wed through Thu, with some caution. By
Thursday, we get into an increasing northerly flow as low pressure
strengthens to our south. This will kick in some cold air
advection and drop temps back to more normal levels toward the end
of the week.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
The GFS and the Canadian suggest the southern low could threaten
our eastern areas with some light rain as the low heads
northeast. But, that threat looks small. Just slight chances of
rain and would expect most of this period to be dry. The cooler
trend will continue.
Stratus is expected to hang on much of the time right through
Monday, likely varying between IFR and MVFR. A few breaks are not
out of the question Monday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight,
winding down in the southeast by the early morning hours. The best
chance for for precip will be across the southeast half of the
Could see some patchy fog develop behind the
.MARINE...precip tonight into
early Sunday morning as winds become light.
Will keep the timing of the Small Craft Advisory as based on the
latest forecast waves/winds. Lighter winds and lower waves are
expected on Sunday.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ643>646.
TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Davis