Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280243
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
843 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The band of rain associated with left front exit region of the
upper jet, coupled with a negative tilt mid level short wave
lifting north across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and a
potent low level jet will move through rather quickly overnight.
Instability is lacking, so pulled the previous mention of thunder.
We should begin to see things taper off by midnight southwest of
Madison, then in Madison between midnight and 2 am and eventually
Milwaukee by 3-4 am. There will be a lull in the shower activity
Monday morning, until a secondary short wave quickly lifts
northeast across Illinois on Monday, bringing another round of
showers and possible thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IFR conditions will be dominant across the area through about mid
evening on Monday. A brief period of MVFR and possibly VFR CIGS
has pushed into southeast Wisconsin, but this should go back to
IFR between 06-09z Monday. Expect moderate to strong southerly
winds through Monday as the center of strong low pressure lifts
north into the eastern Dakotas. Rain will taper off at KMSN
between 06-07z Monday and at KMKE/KUES/KENW by 08-09z. There will
be a lull in the rain through Monday morning, but IFR conditions
will linger. A secondary low will lift north across Illinois into
southeast Wisconsin Monday afternoon and evening. Another surge of
rain will arrive with that low. Expect improving flight conditions
in the wake of the secondary low later Monday evening.


&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will continue to increase ahead of approaching
low pressure tonight. Wind gusts are expected to reach gale force
by around midnight. A gale warning is in effect from midnight
tonight though most of Monday night. The strong winds will build
high waves, the highest in the northern marine zones.

Winds will shift to the southwest Monday night as an occluded/cold
front moves through and gusts drop below small craft advisory levels
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence medium.

The weak mid/upper ridge across Wisconsin will move off to the east
early tonight as a strong trough over the northern Rockies pushes
into the Northern and Central Plains.  A strong 170 knot upper jet
rounds the base of the trough and pushes across the southern Lake
Michigan region Monday.  Moderate to strong upper divergence and 700
mb upward motion begins this evening before lifting off to the
northeast late tonight.  A second area of divergence and moderate to
strong 700 mb upward motion begins again Monday. 700 mb RH saturates
this evening before a dry slot moves across early Monday morning.
Low levels remain saturated as this happens.  As a result expect
rain to develop quickly this evening.  Some minimal elevated cape
could bring isolated thunderstorms.  Cape is around 300 Joules/kg
later Monday, which is close to surface based. Any lull in
precipitation would likely have some drizzle in it early Monday
morning, before showers with isolated thunderstorms again by Monday
afternoon.

A strong 45 to50 knot jet max lifts across southern Wisconsin later
tonight that continues most of Monday.

The pressure gradient is really going to tighten up over southern WI
as low pressure occludes over the Dakotas tonight. Expect south wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph overnight, especially in elevated areas.  An
inversion will temper wind gusts early.

Monday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

A strong upper trough will swing north from the srn Great Plains
to Lower MI from late Mon afternoon into Mon night. Fairly strong
PVA, mid level frontogenesis, and q-vector convergence will bring
another round of moderate rainfall from the afternoon into Mon
night. Subsidence and drying will follow for Tue. Swly winds and
weak warm advection could boost temps well into the 50s for Tue.
The large occluded low over MN will then slowly move toward the
northern Great Lakes from Wed into Thu. This will bring slight
chances of very light rain and snow for that time period. Temps
will remain slightly above normal.

LONG TERM...Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

The occluded system will finally be exiting on Fri with high
pressure to follow for Sat. An upper trough may approach for Sun,
thus slight chances of light rain and snow. Temps will be near or
slightly above normal for the weekend.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IFR Stratus over much of southern Wisconsin with brief MVFR.

Winds will start to increase tonight. A band of moderate rain will
move across southern Wisconsin this evening. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible.

Cloud bases will likely remain IFR/LIFR until a cold front moves
through Monday night.

A strong 45 to 50 knot jet max lifts across southern Wisconsin later
tonight that continues most of Monday.

The pressure gradient is really going to tighten up over southern
Wisconsin low pressure occludes over the Dakotas tonight. Expect south
wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph overnight, especially in elevated areas.
An inversion will temper wind gusts early.

MARINE...

Southerly winds will increase ahead of approaching low pressure
tonight. Wind gusts are expected to reach gale force by around
midnight.  A gale warning is in effect from midnight tonight though
most of Monday night. The strong winds will build high waves, the
highest in the northern marine zones.

Winds will shift to the southwest Monday night as an occluded/cold
front moves through and gusts drop below small craft advisory levels
Tuesday evening.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
     LMZ643>646.

$$

TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING from midnight tonight to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...Gehring



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