Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180416
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1116 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

FOG TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE DRY AIRMASS. THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
ON FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW TAKING HOLD. A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER. STILL A LOT OF
CUMULUS UPSTREAM SO LIKE THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR NRN IN AND SRN LWR MI. THIS
HIGH WILL JUST GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL WEST OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FURTHER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS 925 TEMPS RISE A LITTLE FURTHER IN
THE TEENS CELSIUS. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ONLY IN THE MID 50S...SO WILL STEER IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
DEWS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN MOS GUIDE. WILL GO WITH THE DRY ECMWF FOR
FRIDAY AS LACK OF DECENT MOIST INFLUX AND TRIGGER SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHCS AT BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS PINCHED OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST AS WEAK FLOW PERSISTS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS.  SRN WI WL BE CLIPPED BY A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HOWEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE LIMITED TO AOB 5K FEET WITH PARCHED
AIRMASS ABOVE OVER SRN WI.  BEST COLUMN MOISTURE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN NRN WI AND POINTS NWD.  HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE
TO CONTINUE DRY WORDING FOR SAT.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  AS A RESULT...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CONUS EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
ON MON/TUE.  ONLY GFS BREAKS DOWN RIDGE QUICKLY AS MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS WI ON TUE...WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP FORCING
FARTHER TO THE WEST.  GFS TENDS TO BREAK DOWN DOWNSTREAM LARGE
RIDGING TOO FAST SO WL LEAN MORE ON OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MAY KEEP IN SOME SMALL POPS AROUND TUE...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE
WED WHEN OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGE BEGINING TO BREAKDOWN SLIGHTLY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF HIGH AND
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN CONTROL. THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. MORE MOISTURE BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A TRIGGER...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION
AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST. ANY FOG TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE WIS RVR VLY. TILL A LOT OF CU UPSTREAM SO LIKE YESTERDAY AND
TODAY SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE AT LEAST SCT CU ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK


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