Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 112012
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CHILLY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER QUITE STUBBORN WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND TRAPPING INVERSION. SOME DIURNAL LOOK HAS
TAKEN SHAPE IN PARTS OF WRN WI BUT CU HAS FILLED RIGHT BACK IN.
EXPECTING THE CLOUD COVER TO LARGELY REMAIN INTACT. THE NAM MOS
HAS BEEN DOING A GREAT JOB ON THESE TRENDS. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY
WITH SOME DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S SO ANY CLEARING WOULD RESULT
IN A COLDER THAN EXPECTED DROPOFF. LATER IN THE NIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
THAT THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO TO VARYING DEGREES. SO WILL
RETAIN THE INHERITED POPS IN THE FAR SE ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE MUCH COOLER REGIME IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING ALOFT AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND STRONG JET CORE PUNCHES ON EASTERN SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS.
DECENT UPWARD DIVERGENCE AND SOME LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
EVOLVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN
THE CONSENSUS ON THIS HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT SHRA POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE 540 DM THICKNESS TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS
SRN WI FRI NT. A BAND OF 850-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE AND CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN INTO FRI NT.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SAT. IF THE CLEARING DOES OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. A LITTLE FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF SAUK
COUNTY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT WITH THE
HIGH SHIFTING MORE INTO ERN WI FOR SAT NT. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C
WOULD SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60F. LGT SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE SAT NT WITH 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION
BEGINNING. THUS DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR FROST. SWLY
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S FOR SUN
IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A SFC LOW MOVING EWD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.


.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM CANADA INTO SRN WI FOR LATE
SUN NT AND MON. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF LGT RAIN TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
THOUGH SOME BKN VFR CIGS TRENDING SOUTH FROM WC WI. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THE CLOUDS WON/T BE GOING ANYWHERE TONIGHT. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...
LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY
WILL MEAN THAT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. ANY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE MVFR CIGS. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE UP
TO 4-6K FEET LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO LIKE THE IDEA OF
SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM AMOUNTS LOOK
A BIT OVERDONE. SYNOPTIC INDUCED PRECIP KICKS IN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GO TO EXPIRATION TIME. EVEN
THOUGH WINDS HAVE EASED BELOW CRITERIA...A BEND TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION LIKELY KEEPING SOME OF THE HIGHER WAVES AROUND FOR A TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING


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