Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171603
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1103 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Polar airmass over the region for much of the week with the
  exception of a brief mild period on Tue.

- Light snow accumulations are possible later Thursday and
  Thursday night.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1103 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The shortwave trough over east central WI will exit to the east
by early afternoon but cyclonic flow aloft and low level
instability will continue the broken cloud cover and flurries.
This could easily continue into Mon AM followed by 500 mb height
rises and the clearing of stratocumulus for the afternoon. Polar
air and below normal temps will continue today into Mon.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 403 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today through Monday:

Still think there could be a few snowflakes through this
afternoon today as a shortwave moves through. Coverage will be
limited though given significant dry air in the lower levels,
with dewpoint depressions around 15-20 degrees through the day.
Clouds and breezy northwest winds will continue into Monday
given lingering cyclonic flow across the area. Below normal
temps are expected today and again Monday, with highs only in
the mid to upper 30s.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 403 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

Models are showing a good amount of warm air advection aloft
moving through Monday night into early Tuesday ahead of a low
pressure system and associated cold front. Not seeing much
moisture below 700 mb though, so kept the forecast dry for now.
Temps will be milder Tuesday ahead of the front, with highs back
up around 50.

Colder temps will return through mid week behind the cold
front. Watching the potential for some accumulating snowfall
later Thursday into Thursday night as a shortwave moves through.
Models are showing much deeper saturation with this system along
with a good swath of warm air advection aloft and frontogenetic
forcing. Bumped up precip chances to the 50-70 percent range for
Thursday evening into Thursday night given pretty good agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance for measurable
snowfall. Plenty of time for the finer details to change
through, given this system is still a few days out.

Kept some lower end precip chances (20-40 percent) going Friday
and Saturday, with models diverging a bit with the timing of the
next approaching late week system. Friday may end up being dry
between the systems, with the deterministic GFS and Canadian
solutions holding onto dry weather even into Saturday. Temps are
expected to stay at least a couple degrees below normal through
late week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1103 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Bkn035-050 stratocumulus for much of the period from this
afternoon through Mon AM with brief flurries or light snow
showers. Clearing skies then expected from late Mon AM into the
afternoon. Modest to brisk nwly winds today into Mon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 403 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Breezy northwest winds are expected today between low pressure
passing from Ontario into Quebec and high pressure centered
roughly over the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect until 03Z this evening. Winds will
be a little lighter Monday as the high weakens a bit while
dropping southward, while the low continues to head eastward.
Breezy southwest winds early Tuesday ahead of a cold front will
become northwest by later Tuesday behind the front. Breezy
northwest winds will continue into Wednesday behind departing
low pressure and an approaching high. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be possible again Tuesday and Wednesday.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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