Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 241828 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1228 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PER HRRR MODEL
FIELDS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A BIT IN MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAISED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY
08Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 09Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...ENDING AROUND 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR



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