Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221023
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
523 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is ongoing early this morning, and will continue through
  the morning commute. Budget extra time if taking to the roads
  this morning.

- A narrow band of heavy snowfall is expected along the
  Wisconsin-Illinois border this morning & early afternoon.

- Good chance (70-80%) for precipitation Sunday through Tuesday,
  initially in the form of snow, with warmer temperatures and
  rain by Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Today through Saturday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Snowfall is ongoing across Southern Wisconsin
this morning, with radar imagery showing bands of activity currently
focusing along the US-18/I-94 Corridor and over the Wisconsin River
Valley. Having pushed into the region late last night, the
aforementioned snowfall has been forced by a combination of warm air
advection & frontogenesis near the 700 mb level, with divergence
within an upper right entrance region providing an additional source
of lift. Evident in regional radar mosaics, additional, more
convective snowfall is in-progress over portions of central and
western Iowa. Said area of snow has developed in response to an
encroaching upper shortwave and attendant layer of stacked
frontogenesis between the surface and 700 mb. This area of snowfall
is expected to pivot east through sunrise, tracking across southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois from this morning through the first
half of the afternoon hours today. Its placement will thus support
the highest storm total snow accumulations over far southern and
southeastern Wisconsin. Snow will push east by late afternoon,
giving way to north winds and chilly lows in the teens tonight.
Winds will turn out of the east on Saturday as high pressure pivots
from the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the southern shore of the
Hudson Bay.

Today: Snow will continue into the mid-afternoon hours. As discussed
above, heaviest totals are expected over southern and southeastern
Wisconsin, where the heart of the ongoing activity over Iowa is most
likely to track. The overnight forecast thus calls for a widespread
2-5" across the area through mid-afternoon today, with locally
higher totals to/above 6" possible over far southern and
southeastern Wisconsin. Placement of any higher totals will be
sporadic/heavily dependent on where the heaviest snowfall rates
occur. In coordination with neighboring offices, have thus held off
on any Winter Storm Warnings in the overnight update given the
likely localized nature of any 6"+ totals over southern and
southeastern Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect
across south-central Wisconsin until 1 PM this afternoon, and until
4 PM for southeastern Wisconsin.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Saturday Through Thursday:

High pressure is expected to shrink and retreat northeast Saturday
night as low pressure forms in the lee of the rockies and warm
advection occurs in a broad area of the northern plains and upper
midwest. It`s looking like this WAA will drive initial snow over
the upper Mississippi Valley and lead to snow over western to
central WI. Locally, this would cause light shows through the day
on Sunday generally west and northwest of Madison.

Sunday night, snow should lift north followed by a gap of dry
air. WAA will warm the thermal profile of the atmosphere and
showery precip will give way to steady rain Monday morning. Light
rain should then continue in an on and off fashion into Tuesday
morning.

Cold blustery conditions should occur on Tuesday as a strong
pressure gradient remains over the region and cold air wraps in
behind the exiting storm system. High pressure should then sink
south into the middle Mississippi Valley for Wednesday. Models
then hint toward milder conditions with rain chances by next
Friday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Snow will continue through the morning over much of southern
Wisconsin. Before dawn, pockets of heavier snow will occur on a
scattered basis while after dawn a heavier band should set up near
the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Widespread ceilings of around 700
ft should continue through today with the snow, lifting to around
1500ft this evening following the exit of the snow.

Winds today will be from the east and southeast, turning
northerly this afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Low pressure will pass by to the south of the lake through today,
with winds turning from southeast to more northerly through the
day into tonight as the low moves east of the region. Breezy
northerly winds will then continue Saturday, before becoming
easterly again on Sunday. Winds may reach gale force at times
Monday and Tuesday as a stronger low pressure system moves through
the region.

CMiller and Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 1 PM
     Friday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
     Friday to 7 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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