Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240833
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...This section will be added shortly.

.THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The cold front is expected to push the rest of the way through the
forecast area Friday morning. Deeper moisture and lingering
instability will hang around in the southeast for at least the
morning. Kept some pops southeast half in the morning as a result,
winding things down early afternoon as a drier and more stable
airmass moves in behind the departing front. Temps aloft will not
fall quickly behind the front, so highs in the upper 70s and low 80s
still seem reasonable.

.FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will bring very pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin
on Friday. Skies should be mostly sunny, with light winds and highs
just a tad under normal values for late August.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Low pressure will approach on Saturday. Southerly low level flow
ahead of the low will bring milder temps and dewpoints to the area.
Storms are expected to develop by afternoon, particularly in the
west/northwest forecast area. Better chance for storms will likely
be overnight as the shortwave moves through.

Moisture and instability are expected to linger into Sunday, with
another wave possibly bringing more storm chances.

The GFS and ECMWF both have surface high pressure in place for
Monday and Tuesday. The GFS is milder though with an upper ridge
building in. It also has higher dewpoints and storm chances both
days as weak waves pass through the northern extent of the ridge.
Then ECMWF on the other hand has more of a troughing look both days,
keeping somewhat cooler and drier conditions across the forecast
area. Despite showing a wave or two moving through, the ECMWF looks
dry because of the lower overall moisture and instability compared
to the GFS. The Canadian looks similar to the ECMWF through Monday.
Gave a nod to the GFS and kept some low pops both days, but could
end up being dry if the ECMWF/Canadian solutions pan out.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...These sections will be added
shortly.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon CDT today for LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...DDV


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