Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 262039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
339 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017


Tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Showers associated with a MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) that
is rolling across northern IL and southern WI will exit southeast
WI by early evening. The thunder has remained confined to south of
the WI/IL border today, but can`t rule out a stray rumble across
the southern WI counties. Rain is becoming steadier now and up to
a quarter inch is possible south of I-94.

Clear skies are expected behind this system. This should lead to
some patchy radiational fog overnight. More fog is possible over
Lake Michigan due to high dewpoints over relatively cool water, so
kept the Marine Dense Fog advisory going. This fog could advect
inland a bit early Saturday morning.

We should have quiet and warm weather across southern WI for most
of the day on Saturday. Highs expected in the upper 70s inland and
around 70 near the lakeshore.

Saturday night and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

It`s not until the early evening hours when a weak cold front
becomes the focus for some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Not
all models agree on timing, but the majority suggest that the
front and associated showers shouldn`t make it into south central
WI until the early morning hours on Sunday. This would keep our
instability very low.

Meanwhile, another MCV is expected to roll across northern IL
Saturday night. Southern WI could be on the northern fringe of
those showers and isolated storms once again.

Yet another weak cold front could trigger showers and isolated
storms across mainly northern WI midday Sunday, with a few
trailing showers lingering into the afternoon.

Bottom line is cloud cover with a chance for rain at times and
highs around 70.


Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed upper low will set up over the Great Lakes for the first
half of next week. This will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to much of WI each afternoon. Max temps will be in
the upper 60s.



Upper level disturbance moving out of NE IA will spread SHRAs
across sthrn WI this aftn. Most of the activity should remain
along and S of I-94. System is fcst to pull away this evng
leaving scattered VFR clouds tonight. Winds become lght/vrb
overnight as weak SFC ridge moves thru which will set the stage
for some radiation fog. Best chances will be across SW WI which
should be the first areas for clouds to thin tonight. Another area
of concern is a band of fog that dvlpd this mrng along the
lakeshore. Expect this band to persist into Sat with IFR VSBYs.



Webcams near the lakeshore are showing clear conditions this
afternoon and clouds have overspread the area so we cannot see the
extent of fog over the lake via satellite at this time. Will keep
the marine dense fog advisory going until midday Saturday due to
favorable conditions for areas of dense fog during the overnight


LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Cronce/BM
Saturday Night through Friday...Cronce is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.