Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271727
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1127 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through at least 06z Tuesday. Mid
level clouds will be on the increase today into the early evening
as low pressure approaches from the southwest. That low will
bring a surge of rain into the area after midnight tonight. The
rain will spread from southwest to northeast across the area. CIGS
should lower to MVFR after the rain arrives with IFR conditions
expected toward 12z Tuesday. A rumble of thunder is also possible,
but it will be isolated. Winds will be light out of the south
today, becoming southeast and increasing late tonight.


&&

.MARINE...

Southeast winds may reach small craft advisory levels very late
tonight into early Tuesday morning as low pressure approaches from
the west. Once the low passes by, northerly winds will again
approach small craft advisory levels on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure over the area this morning will slide east by evening
as low pressure approaches from the plains.  A nice day is in store
with light winds, enough sunshine and mild temperatures for late
February.

Water vapor imagery shows a rather energetic system pushing through
the central Rockies early this morning.  That mid level short wave
will be coupled with a strong surge of warm air advection ahead of
the surface low resulting in a wave of rain pushing into the area
after midnight. There is some weak elevated CAPE, so will keep the
small mention of thunder.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Low pressure will pass through the area Tuesday into Wednesday,
bringing continued precip chances to southern Wisconsin. Still
seeing enough instability to keep slight chance of thunder in the
forecast on Tuesday. Precip will be in the form of rain on
Tuesday, slowly transitioning to snow northwest Tuesday night,
then snow across the area by Wednesday afternoon as colder air
moves in on the back side of the low. NAM/Canadian/ECMWF
solutions are in decent agreement showing the potential for at
least an inch of snow on Wednesday, though the GFS is much drier
and has very little precip.

Despite the clouds and rain, should be mild day Tuesday as
southerly low level flow ahead of the low continues to draw up
warmer temps. Near normal temps will return for Wednesday.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Could see a little snow Thursday as a wave moves through. Models
keep bouncing around with the track of this quick moving system
though, so not very high confidence in pops at this time.

Decent agreement among models for Friday, showing high pressure
and near normal temps to end the week.

GFS and Canadian show a little snow Fri night due to warm
advection as the high departs. The ECMWF has similar warming,
though remains dry.

Looks mainly dry for the weekend, with well above normal
temperatures expected.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through at least 06z Tuesday.  High
pressure over the area early in the TAF period will gradually drift
east as low pressure approaches from the west.  That low will bring
a surge of rain into the area after midnight tonight.  The rain will
spread from southwest to northeast across the area.  CIGS should
lower to MVFR after the rain arrives with some IFR conditions
expected toward 12z Tuesday.  A rumble of thunder is also possible,
but it will be isolated.  Winds will be light out of the south
today, becoming southeast and increasing late tonight.

MARINE...

Southeast winds will approach small craft advisory levels very late
tonight into early Tuesday morning as low pressure approaches from
the west.  Once the low passes by, northerly winds will again
approach small craft advisory levels on Wednesday. Small craft
should exercise caution during these periods.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hentz
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV



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