Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 050416
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1016 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Stratus clouds are expected to persist
through the early morning hours of Monday and probably will not
break up until after sunrise. Cigs will range from 400-1000 feet.
Areas of MVFR vsbys via light fog will be possible around sunrise.
Middle to high clouds will then prevail from late Mon morning
through the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...Modest wly flow Mon AM will turn sly in the afternoon
and continue into Mon night. Waves will build to 3-4 feet north of
Port Washington for Mon night but may become higher creating
hazardous conditions for small crafts. Gusty wly winds may also
reach Small Craft Advisory criteria for Tue afternoon and night.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT and SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

Steady snow will continue across south-central WI through the
afternoon and through the early evening in far southeast WI. There
is good synoptic lift from a mid level trough and strong upper
divergence from a 150kt upper jet. This forcing will slide off to
the east this evening and models are in good agreement showing snow
ending this evening with the passage of the mid level trough axis.
Far southeast WI will continue to see some heavier snow associated
with a band of mid level frontogenesis clipping the region.

High pressure will move across the middle Mississippi valley tonight
bringing light southwest winds. Looked at fog potential for late
tonight and early Monday morning across the western CWA, but winds
at the base of the inversion are around 10 to 15 knots so that
should be enough to mitigate fog. Quiet weather is in store for
Monday.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

A closed upper low over northern Mexico will make its way over to
the Tennessee area by Tue morning. The TN surface low could cause
some light rain/snow to brush southeast WI Mon night/Tue morning.
Models are now trending farther southeast with this feature and
suggest a dry fcst for SE WI.

Meanwhile, a large upper trough over south central Canada will dip
down through the Upper Midwest and drop much colder air into
southern Wisconsin by Tue evening. The cold front could bring a few
flurries.

Winds will switch around to the west midday with the initial surge
of cold air. Highs Tue will be above freezing one more day, in the
mid to upper 30s. Tue night lows will drop into the teens most
places.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Brisk west winds and cold temperatures will be the main story for
the latter half of the week. Models are now in good agreement on the
location of a closed upper low over sliding across Ontario Canada.
We could see flurries off and on through this period. The ECMWF now
has a system to our southeast brushing far SE WI once again. Any
accumulation would be minor.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is low.

We will get into more of a zonal flow pattern for the weekend. A
ripple in the flow will bring a weak surface low through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday. The ECMWF is farther north with
this feature at this time, but there is a chance of snow for
southern WI.

The noisy weather pattern will continue into the first half of next
week, but temperatures look more moderated- not as cold.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

300 to 800 ft ceilings and 1/2 to 3/4 mile snow will persist for
another 2-3 hours across southeast WI. Snow will exit south-central
WI late this afternoon and southeast WI early this evening. Ceilings
and visibilities will improve some when the snow ends. Expect MVFR
to VFR after midnight.

MARINE...

Winds will increase and become southwest tonight. Gusty winds are
possible at times during the week starting on Monday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ051-
     052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

LM...None.

$$

TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gehring
TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Marquardt
Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...MRC



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