Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
334 FXUS63 KMKX 080916 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 416 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and rumbles of thunder are expected tonight. Widespread strong to severe storms are not anticipated. - Small Craft conditions may occur Thursday. - Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Friday evening through Saturday. Strong storms are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 405 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Today through Thursday: With recent rains from Tuesday evening thunderstorms, clear skies, light winds, and subsidence, some patchy ground fog is expected before sunrise. A weak disturbance may also bring sprinkles/light rain to far southwest WI around daybreak. Rain from this should erode pretty quickly, however, as it encounters relatively dry low to mid levels. Any clouds in the area from the disturbance are expected to erode and dry air should keep southern Wisconsin rain-less throughout the day. Temperatures may rise into the upper 70s away from Lake Michigan, while closer to Lake Michigan, a weak trough sinking south down the lake may push a lake breeze inland as soon as mid day, blunting high temperatures and keeping them in the upper 60s to near 70. Clouds then increase as a small 500mb cutoff low and WAA sparks convection over Iowa late this afternoon and clouds advect over southern Wisconsin. Precipitation will move east but fight a considerable depth of dry air (~10000 ft) as it tries to move into Wisconsin, so we may not see precipitation until after sunset as a sfc low moves over IL and its TROWAL axis moves over our CWA. Even with a marginal risk painted over our CWA southwest of Madison, severe weather really isn`t expected, as MUCAPE will be elevated at the 700mb level and above and feature a fairly skinny profile, only supporting 250 to 500 J/kg of CAPE. Nevertheless, a few rumbles of thunder may occur. Precipitation then continues Wednesday night into Thursday as the low pressure moves over the eastern cornbelt, and continues to drag a TROWAL west to east over Wisconsin and lower Michigan. As such, conditions will be cool on Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. We will then dry out late Thursday afternoon as the TROWAL exits east. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 412 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Thursday night through Tuesday: We`ll dry out Thursday night as high pressure over Minnesota builds into the region. Friday should be fairly nice as a result with shortwave ridging aloft allowing temperatures to rebound into the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will increase late Friday afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave and sfc low that will dive southeast out of Canada toward central WI. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Friday night into early Saturday morning. The low should exit east by Saturday afternoon, but cold air aloft and daytime heating should lead to scattered, instability-driven showers Saturday afternoon. High pressure should briefly take hold for Sunday, before a weak sfc trough brings more shower chances (PoPs of 15 to 30%) for Monday. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 337 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 With recent rains from Tuesday evening thunderstorms, clear skies, light winds, and subsidence, some patchy ground fog may form in spots before sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of the daytime hours into the early evening. Cloud cover will increase this evening and rain will spread from southwestern WI to the east with time. Ceilings should develop and decrease to MVFR and IFR by dawn on Thursday. Light and variable winds this morning will come around to northerly through the morning hours and then become easterly to northeasterly this afternoon. Speeds should remain light through today, but gusts to 20 knots are anticipate take hold tonight. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 329 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure over the northern end of Lake Michigan will exit east toward Lake Ontario through today. Light to moderate northwesterlies over the northern end of the Lake to southwesterlies over the south end of the lake will persist until about mid-day, when a weak trough attached to the low moves from north to south over the lake. Winds behind this trough will come around to northerly and finally northeasterly by the late afternoon to early evening. Northeasterlies will then continue overnight into Thursday as an area of low pressure passes east over the Ohio River Valley. Gusts to 25 knots may occur over the south half of the lake late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon leading to small craft advisory criteria conditions locally. Winds then ease Thursday night as high pressure approaches the Upper Great Lakes. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee