Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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195
FXUS63 KMKX 210829
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A stalled front over the southeast forecast area this morning will
lift back northward today. Most of the activity along the front
has wiped out, with only 1 storm currently on the radar. Models
are mostly dry today as the front pushes north. There will be
plenty of instability and moisture across the area south of the
front though, so not out of the question to see a stray shower or
storm. Given the lack of forcing, decided to go with a dry
forecast.

Storms to the southwest of the forecast area continue to produce
high clouds that are covering most of southern Wisconsin. There
will probably be some fog develop if the clouds diminish at all
during the early morning hours. Seeing very low visibilities
currently just on the northwest edge of the cloud shield.

Clouds and any fog that develops should decrease this morning. 925
mb temps will be very warm again today, which should allow
temperatures to approach records once again away from Lake
Michigan. Onshore winds should keep it a little cooler near the
lake. Temps will remain mild overnight tonight.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...High

Upper level riding will dominate this weekend with dry conditions
through the depth of the atmosphere. At the surface, we`ll be on the
western flank of a strong high pressure system, keeping southerly
flow in place. Southerly winds coupled with mostly sunny skies will
result in more near-record warmth. High dew points will remain in
place as well, pushing heat indices into the low to mid 90s in
some locations.

.LONG TERM...

Monday through Wednesday - Confidence...

An upper trough will move through the region early next week,
forcing the upper ridge to finally make its way out of the region. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will sweep through as
well during this time. All the warmth and moisture that will be in
place through the weekend will couple with the lift from the front
to bring showers and storms to southern Wisconsin.

There remains a bit of uncertainty as to a) when exactly the
precip will move through the area, and b) how long the precip will
last. The GFS begins the precip on Monday and has it persisting
off and on through Wednesday. The Euro and GEM have a more
abbreviated period of rain, beginning Tuesday and ending Wednesday
morning. Regardless, showers and storms are likely at some point
early next week and we`ll gain a better focus as to exactly when
that will occur as we move through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Fog is likely to develop early this morning in places that clouds
clear out, especially locations that saw the rain yesterday. Areas
northwest of Madison have the best chance to see low visibilities
given the current location and progression of the cloud shield.

After fog diminishes by mid-morning, should see VFR conditions the
remainder of the day as a front lifts back north through the
forecast area. Not out of the question to see an isolated shower
or storm today, but most places should be dry.

Seems there should be enough low level wind do limit fog
development tonight. Not out of the question some places could
have lower visibilities given mostly clear skies, light winds,
and recent rain.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be on the light side for the rest of the week into the
weekend, with low waves expected as a result.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Friday through Wednesday...BSH



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