Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 292029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA...DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LIKELY DECREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
LINE MAY FALL APART AS IT HEADS EASTWARD...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST. THUS JUST KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE EAST OF MADISON.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY...THE
HIGHEST CHANCE EAST TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT TO WORK WITH.
NAM IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH WARMER 925 MB TEMPS...WHILE
MOST OTHER MODELS BRING IN COOLER TEMPS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF
MODELS...RESULTING IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGION OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND NEUTRAL-TILT 500 MB TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST OVER LOWER MI BY
00Z WED...AND FORCING/LIFT WITH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE PASSING JUST
SW OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. OVERLY-MOIST NAM PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN SHORELINE CONVERGENCE REGION IN THE
EVENING...BUT THIS LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE NOT EVIDENT ON OTHER MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL LEAVE DRY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG UNTIL DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
NE..WITH UPPER 50S SW.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TAKING A PATH SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. QPF OVER THE WEST ON NAM AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO OVERLY-
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS DRY FORECAST. 925 MB
TEMPS SUPPORT MID-UPR 70S IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE COOL
AND PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OFF THE LAKE HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S NE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

AXIS OF DEEPER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF EASTERN CANADIAN
TROUGH CROSSES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAM
CARVES THE TROUGH DEEPER INTO NE WI...HOWEVER STABILITY AND MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE HIGH COVERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP AREA DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

ECMWF PHASING A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER...
STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT...
CARVING OUT A TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH. GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE SHORT WAVES SEPARATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA. LEANING TOWARD THE DRY SOLUTION...BUT WILL GO
WITH BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANY PRECIPITATION...IF IT DOES
OCCUR...WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING FOR THE START
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
CONFIGURATION  OF NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES...BUT
CONSENSUS TIMING LOOKS TO PUT WESTERN CWA INTO SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPPER 70S SATURDAY...TO LOW 80S SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CURRENT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LINE MAY FALL APART
AS IT HEADS EASTWARD...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST. THUS JUST KEPT POPS AT CHANCE EAST
OF MADISON.

LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY...THE
HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AND IN
MODERATE/HEAVY SHOWERS...SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM



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