Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 060830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A WEAK 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY
WITH A SECOND EVEN WEAKER SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT.  GENERALLY NEUTRAL
OR VERY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE BECOMES WEAKLY DIVERGENT LATE TONIGHT.
VERY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES LATE TONIGHT.

700 MB RH INCREASES THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BUT DOES
NOT SATURATE.  THEREFORE MAINLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.  700 MB RH INCREASES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SATURATION...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY.  850 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL SOME INCREASE
OCCURS FAR NORTH TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.  925 MB RH IS ALSO RATHER
DRY SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WEAK 925/850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING SLOWS...THEN
CONTINUES AGAIN TONIGHT.

AREAS OF SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN THE
URBAN AREAS.  A FEW LOW VALLEY AREAS SOUTHEAST DROPPED TO AROUND 10
BELOW OR LESS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE FOR A TIME.  AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO RISE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY
A BRIEF DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. MODELS ARE ALL
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WITH SECONDARY AND ELONGATED VORT AXIS THAT
PASSES ONCE THE LOW LEVEL CAA KICKS IN.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN ISSUE IS HANDLING PRECIP WITH NEXT WEAKER TROUGH. THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH AT LEAST A DRIER LOOK THAN THE 12Z RUN.
MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE DRY LOOK. SO HAVE
SCALED BACK GOING FCST OF POPS/QPF/SNOW IN LINE WITH THE TREND THE
ECMWF IS HEADED. A COUPLE OF VORTS RIDING THROUGH THE OVERALLCYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE SURFACE/850 TROUGHS...BUT NOT MUCH
AMPLIFICATION WITH THESE FEATURES. OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NW TO A MORE WESTERLY LOOK.
ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PROGGD TO OUR NORTH OR WEST WITH LITTLE
FORCING NOTED ACRS SRN WI. WITH SFC HIGH SHIFTING SE WILL GET INTO
A WAA REGIME WITH 925 TEMPS HEADED FOR POSITIVER TERRITORY ON THE
CELSIUS SCALE. SO MANY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 40F.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. ECMWF SAYS WE GO WELL
INTO THE 50S WHILE THE GFS SAYS NOT SO FAST. GFS MUCH QUICKER TO
BRING IN COLDER AIR WITH FROPA WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A WARM WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. 925 TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF PUSH 10C WHILE THE GFS
NUDGES IN ABOUT A 4C THERMAL RIDGE BEFORE CAA REPLACES THAT AFTER
18Z. WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND FOR NOW FOR HIGHS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MORE WILD TEMP DIFFERENCES WITH 925 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOWING A 13C
SPREAD. THE ECMWF HAS US IN THE GRIPS OF A BALMY AIRMASS WHILE THE
GFS HAS A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. AGAIN...SEEMS LIKE A PERFECT
CASE FOR GOING WITH SUPERBLEND GIVEN THE MASSIVE DIFFERENCES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UNEVENTFUL UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
FINALLY BRINGS A COOLER PUSH AS THE FRONT SWINGS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A
COOL EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

700 MB RH INCREASES THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BUT DOES
NOT SATURATE.  THEREFORE MAINLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.  700 MB RH INCREASES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SATURATION...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY.  850 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL SOME INCREASE
OCCURS FAR NORTH TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.  925 MB RH IS ALSO RATHER
DRY SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR


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