Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251916
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS


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