Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 011649 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1149 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW STRATUS DECK IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SEEMS TO HAVE
SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THIS AREA. THINK
THIS DECK WITH BECOME MORE STRATOCUMULUS IN NATURE AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS DUE TO A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES A BIT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER RESULTS. FOR
NOW...KEPT THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS WELL INLAND...WITH 60S NEAR THE
LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SHOULD REMAIN IN
THAT AREA AND/OR SLOWLY MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS EAST OF MILWAUKEE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. EAST
WINDS WILL BACK NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON INTO EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THURSDAY AT THE EASTERN
SITES...AND EAST NORTHEAST AT MADISON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MADISON AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN SITES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BACK NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THEY WILL SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH...AS
DAYTIME HEATING SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. WEB
CAMERAS SHOWING NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTS SWD
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
STRATUS TO MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE
ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW CWA
TODAY AND INTO TNT. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND EXPECTED LAKE
BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NEAR THE LAKE TODAY WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND. FOR TNT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO NRN
LAKE MI. A LGT ELY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH MO CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET AND COOL PERIOD WITH 500 MILLIBAR NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWING
BEST VORT FORCING TO OUR SOUTH. SURFACE/850 HIGHS DOMINATE WITH
DRY/COOL/STABLE REGIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS WITH 925 THERMAL REGIME
SHOWING MODIFICATION. IN FACT 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO REACH AT LEAST
THE LOW 20S CELSIUS FOR SUNDAY SO GOOD SHOT OF LOW 80S FOR HIGHS.
SOUTHERLY REGIME NOT STRONG SO ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WELL THE 30/12Z ECMWF RESORTED BACK TO THE QUICKER SOLUTION ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SHOWING SOME TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER GEM/GFS ON LAST
NIGHTS 30/00Z RUN. AND ONCE AGAIN THE 01/00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE VERY STABLE GEM/GFS RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. SO A DRY FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH SUPERBLEND
STILL SHOWING SUNDAY NIGHT POPS AND WILL LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW PER
COLLAB. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS FROM THE 01/00Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA
SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
EVENING. CWASP NUMBERS NOT EXACTLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 FRONT PROGGD TO BE SOUTH OF WI WITH ABOUT 6-7C MORE
CAA NOTED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. WILL GO DRY THIS PERIOD AND
USE THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY FROM 1-3 KFT
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY 15Z DUE TO HEATING AND MIXING AND BECOME
FEW DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TNT AFTER
THE BROKEN STRATUS DISSIPATE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


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