Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 102049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE
AREA. BACKED OFF POPS QUITE A BIT FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING THETA-E AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A
GOOD JUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SO...EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...DID PUT
SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A BIT FOR TOMORROW WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

12Z ECMWF CAME IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS...INDICATING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ON STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASING 850
MB WINDS OVER SE S DAKOTA/SW MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS...POSSIBLY AN MCS...REACHING SWRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY ON NOSE OF 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE. BEST 850 MB CONVERGENCE...
LOW TO MID-LAYER FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
FOCUSES ALONG WI/IL BORDER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY AS SWLY 850
WINDS HEEL OVER TO THE WEST DROPPING THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
INTO NRN/CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STORMS LIKELY TO MOVE
ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN IL. WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN THE BORDER COUNTIES TAPERING A BIT TO THE NORTH...BUT AT
LEAST 50 POPS IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S SW.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

CHANCES FOR PCPN REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS JET MAXES ON SRN
FLANK OF CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NRN WI/U.P. OF MICHIGAN...
DRIVING SHORT WAVES THROUGH REGION.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES WITH SHARP INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AS 850 MB WINDS BACK TO THE SW OVER LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF FIRST SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT BEST FOCUS REMAINS OVER MAINLY NRN
IL BARELY EDGING INTO FAR SRN WI...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT
RISK. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF...WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY LOWER
POPS NW TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION...THEN HIGHER POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE TOWARDS SRN WI. BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN SO CHANCE POPS IN
BLENDED SOLUTION LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR HIGHER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE

UPPER LOW BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR DOWN OVER THE REGION AS IT
SAGS DOWN AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NRN/NE WI BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
NNWLY FLOW MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS IT
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE ENE. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SETTLES OVER REGION. COOLEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY WITH CONSENSUS RAW
TEMPERATURES SHOWING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S AFTER LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...HELD UP BY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

REGION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL DRYING THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHING NRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. IF WE GET SOME LATE
DAY SUN...HIGHS MAY REACH LOW 70S WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID
70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
TOMORROW TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



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