Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160157
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
857 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DRIER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL WI...BEHIND WEAK FRONT. FOG MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE EVENING BUT THEN MAY THIN A
BIT AS THE DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER SRN WI. MINIMAL NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENT MIXING AND 4 INCH SOIL TEMPS FAVOR FOG
REMAINING MOSTLY LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/2SM LATER
TONIGHT...BUT IN THE INTERIM MAY DROP TO DENSE IN LOW SPOTS AND
RIVER VALLEYS.

LOWERED TEMPS TO AROUND 35-36 IN A FEW LOWER AREAS BUT STILL
THINKING SFC REMAINS TOO WARM FOR MUCH FROST FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS AT
KENW DUE TO LINGERING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH. VSBYS MAY DROP TO BELOW
ONE HALF MILE FOR A TIME BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR SETTLES IN. LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT KUES AND
POSSIBLY KMSN FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
TO RESULT IN A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HENCE UPDATED WIND DIRECTION IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 18Z AND THEN CONTINUE VEERING TO
THE E-SE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY WORK ITS WAY A FEW
MILES INLAND BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE
WINDS SHOULD RESUME AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN THE EARLY EVE
TUESDAY. GLERL REPORTING WRN LAKE MI SEA SURFACE TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID
EVENING WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST...TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...INTO
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONG
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND...MILDER CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM IL TO MI. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SE CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WED EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW AND WILL BE
DRY. OVERALL...MO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FROPA AND RESULTANT PCPN FOR THE WEEKEND. SLY FLOW AND
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRI WITH MUCAPE RISING TO
500-1000 J/KG FOR SAT AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EMANATES FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER S CANADA. ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS FOR FRI AND FRI NT...BUT WITH 50-60 POPS FOR
SAT. SOME TSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SE WI. AFTERWARD...THE CONSENSUS OF SOME UPPER TROUGHING TO DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUN NT BUT NOT
NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z ECMWF. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR SUN-MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS SHOULD END AT MADISON BY 21Z...WITH
THE EASTERN SITES BY 23Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT AND WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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