Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240826
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.


.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK
WAVES PUSHES THROUGH...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP THEN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING/INSTABILITY AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT. SEEING DECENT SHEAR IN MODELS...WITH 0-6 KM
VALUES AROUND 35-45 KT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE OTHER ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE TEMPS. OVERALL...LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...RESULTING IN A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF WARMER TEMPS. STILL A TRICKY SITUATION THOUGH...AS
A FARTHER SOUTH COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE ARE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY ALONG SHORE. A FARTHER NORTH FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND MILDER TEMPS...WHILE A FARTHER
SOUTH FRONT WILL BRING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AND KEEP THINGS
MUCH COOLER. GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND RESULTANT TEMPS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOOKS LIKE A COOLER PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WITH ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST EVERY DAY...IT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOOKS LIKE A
SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



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