Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
BY NOON ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND CONTINUES TONIGHT.

700 MB LAYERS START OUT DRY BUT SATURATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD SHEBOYGAN BY EVENING.
THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MOISTEN MAINLY TONIGHT.  THEREFORE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
TO PUSH NORTHEAST RATHER SLOWLY.  GFS SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME
ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 100 JOULES/KG THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

THE PERSISTENT EAST FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
COOL DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN IL THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE LOW LEVELS SO LIGHT RAIN... DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
WITH A BRISK EAST WIND.

PRECIP WILL DRY UP THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

ONE OF TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT LEE LOW WILL
EITHER SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES... OR THE LEE LOW
WILL FUJIWARA... OR WRAP BACK INTO... THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. IF
THE FIRST SCENARIO PANS OUT LIKE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST...
SOUTHERN WI WOULD SEE RAIN ON SATURDAY. THE OTHER SCENARIO WAS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY SATURDAY AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY... ANY PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CANADIAN AND ECWMF SHOW THE LEE LOW GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
NORTHEAST BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN
WI DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM THE LAKE...
DESPITE THE COOL NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A DRY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THEN LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS/VSBYS WITH RAIN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND INCREASING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL
THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...AND MAY EXTEND
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



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