Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260219
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
919 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FOG FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE LIGHT
EAST FLOW. HOWEVER WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CATEGORY
FOG IS EXPECTED AT MANY AREAS WITH IFR FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOCAL LIFR VISIBILITIES...THOUGH DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
GET DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WELL EAST OF THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

500 MB LOW OVER FAR EASTERN IOWA IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION BRINGS DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH FOG WILL FORM LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ABOVE DECENT TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME FOG TO FORM DURING THIS TIME.

BEST CONCENTRATION SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE LOWEST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOCATED. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE HIGHER DEW POINTS FOR DENSE FOG...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70...BEFORE COOLING OFF LATER IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

QUIET AND MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.  WEAK MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
RETROGRADE SLOWLY WWD.  LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 3K FEET AND WEAK
FORCING WL RESULT IN M/CLR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN
WI FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS VERY WEAK PIECES OF MID-
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINT SO PATCHY LATE NIGHT SHALLOW FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

APPEARS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD LATER NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

ECMWF HAS JOINED GFS IN CARRYING WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE AND COMPACT
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.  THIS DISTURBANCE WL ACT AS
THE CATALYST FOR ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN GTLAKES LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  WL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD SMALL POPS FOR
-SHRA IN FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE.  BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER NORTHERN GTLAKES WAS BOUND TO SLIDE SWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT LIMITED COLUMN MOISTURE STILL A CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUCCUMBS TO
UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING AS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND SW CAN MERGES WITH WEAKENING TROF OVER WRN
PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WL GRADUALLY PULL DEEPER
COLUMN MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MID-WEEK.  DIFFICULT TO
TIME WEAK PIECES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST SO FOR
NOW...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA BEGINNING TUE NGT...CONTINUING
INTO THU.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUE NGT/WED ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD.  MAY INTRODUCE SOME T FOR THE LATER PERIODS.

CPC 8-14 DAY 500MB HEIGHTS VALID OCT 2-8 SHOWS COOLER...BROADSCALE
TROF SETTING UP OVER UPPER MIDWEST/GTLAKES.  HENCE EXPECT UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROF TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY USHER COOLER TEMPS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE FRI-SUN TIME PERIOD /OCT 3-5/.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WELL EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CATEGORY FOG IS EXPECTED AT KENOSHA AND MADISON LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE BRIEF LIFR
VISIBILITIES...THOUGH DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET.

MARINE...

SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SOME MOISTURE LINGERING
IN THE AREA. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE
RANGE...THOUGH LOWER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH
THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK


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