Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 300737
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THE BEST APPROACH.  WE REMAIN IN A VERY DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.  GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS...TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SWIFT NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MAIN EMPHASIS FROM VORT
MAX PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE/850 TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. VERY DRY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS KEEPING THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 925 TEMPS SHOW
AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS
REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL STEER
TOWARDS A BLEND ESP GIVEN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH DECENT
MIXING CAN WARM EFFICIENTLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER NOT MUCH TO
LATCH ONTO. SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES NUDGE INTO THE STATE. SOME
950/925 WAA RETURNS. WILL KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING A DECENT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS
ON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PROGS SUGGEST SOME DRYING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD. FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SO BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOLER REGIME TAKES HOLD. GETTING
SOME SINGLE DIGIT CELSIUS 850 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
ECMWF ONLY A SMIDGE WARMER.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND RENEWED WAA BRINGS SOME POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN ANYTHING SIGGY HERE NOT
GREAT THOUGH AS 850/925 BAROCLINICITY PROGGD TO REMAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A
GLANCING SHOT HERE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



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