Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261602 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1002 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Mid level forcing causing a few flurries is exiting southeast WI
late this morning. Gusty southwest winds and sunshine will allow
temps to rise into the lower to mid 40s this afternoon. Forecast is
on track.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid level clouds
will exit southern WI late this morning. Look for strong and gusty
southwest winds through the daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong southwest winds are expected today as low pressure tracks
across Lake Superior while high pressure moves through the Ohio
River Valley.  A gale warning is in effect south of Milwaukee with a
small craft advisory to the north.  These strong winds and large
waves will subside early this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

Surface low pressure will be moving across Lake Superior today with
high pressure over the Ohio River Valley.  Aloft, there`s a decent
mid level short wave clipping through as well.  We have moderate
warm air advection ahead of this wave producing enough column
moisture that there is a potential for flurries this morning.  Radar
shows lots of returns this morning, with most obs not reporting
anything, just virga. Wautoma in Waushara county is picking up
some light snow, but no vsby restriction. RAP soundings show about
a 3 to 4 hour period when the intervening dry layer shrinks
enough that it could allow some flurries. No accums and no impact.
Temps will warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s during the
afternoon.

The combo of the surface low to the north and the ridge to the south
will bring some strong and gusty winds to the area from mid morning
through early afternoon.  Winds will quickly relax by evening.  Dry
air and quiet weather is expected tonight.

MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

Partly cloudy skies are expected Monday under departing high
pressure. Milder temps will remain in the area, with highs running
10-15 degrees above normal for late February.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Models remain in decent agreement showing low pressure passing
through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Should see some precip arrive
by later Monday night ahead of the low. Temps will be warming
aloft and at the surface as the precip moves in. Should see enough
warming by the time the precip arrives for mainly rain, though a
brief mix is possible in the north. Looks plenty mild enough by
daybreak Tue morning for all rain. Despite the clouds and rain,
should be mild day as southerly low level flow ahead of the low
continues to draw up warmer temps.

Models are still showing a secondary surface low to develop on the
heels of the first departing low. As temps cool behind the first
system, this second low could bring a little snow Wednesday. May
see rain or rain/snow mix for the first part of the day until
temps cool enough at the surface.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Could see a little snow Thursday as a wave moves through. Looks
like a dusting to an inch, depending on the model.

Decent agreement among models for Friday, showing high pressure
and near normal temps to end the week.

GFS and Canadian show a little snow Fri night into Sat morning
due to warm advection as the high departs. The ECMWF has similar
warming, though remains dry. Should see above normal high temps
per latest guidance, as temps aloft are expected to continue
warming through the day.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid level clouds
will push through the area mainly this morning into the early
afternoon. We may even see some flurries during about a 3 to 4 hour
window this morning, but no accum or impact is expected.  Look for
strong and gusty southwest winds to ramp up quickly by mid morning
as surface low pressure passes by to the north, with high pressure
to the south.

MARINE...

Strong southwest winds are expected today as low pressure tracks
across Lake Superior while high pressure moves through the Ohio
River Valley.  A gale warning goes into effect at 9am south of
Milwaukee with a small craft advisory to the north.  These strong
winds and large waves will subside early this evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Monday THROUGH Saturday...DDV



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