Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271614 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...

RAIN IS MOVING OUT QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW... EVEN IN
THE NORTHWEST MKX FORECAST AREA.

WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDS BACK INTO MN AND MOST OF IOWA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
DOMINATING... SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL
EARLY EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN WI IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING OUT. CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO MVFR AND VSBYS
ARE COMING UP TO VFR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GUSTS
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LIMIT WAVE
HEIGHTS...NEARING 4 FEET TOWARDS OPEN WATER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME. THEN VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER NEBRASKA LIFTS NE ON STRENGTHENING UPPER JET MAX. SHORT WAVE
SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CROSSING THE STATE THIS MORNING.
THIS DRIVES SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER FAR SW WI/EXTREME NE
IA...NE OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING AS WELL.

BEST 700 MB OMEGA AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS WEST AND NORTH
THROUGH 12Z...WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND LIFT CROSSING
FORECAST AREA AFTER 12Z. EXPECT AN EQUALLY NARROW AREA OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN TO CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE WI
THIS MORNING...ENDING AS MODELS SHIFT LIFT EAST BY 18Z WITH MID
LEVEL DRYING. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE FAR
WEST...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS.

WESTERN PORTION OF 925 MB THERMAL RIDGE COVERS SRN WI EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SEE HIGHS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...THEN TEMPS FALL WITH COLD
ADVECTION. WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND 35 TO 40
KT 925 MB WINDS BRING POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. GUST WILL BE DIMINISHING AS 925 MB WINDS LOWER TO 25 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH GRADIENT REMAINS FOR MIXING TO OFFSET CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS TO HOLD IN THE UPPER TEENS NW TO
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...WITH MID 20S ALONG THE LAKE.

SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALOFT ACROSS CONUS WHILE DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA UNTIL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
1050+ MB POLAR HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DOWN THE LEE OF ROCKIES WITH
FRESH COLD SURGE ARRIVING AT NIGHT IN WISCONSIN.

MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

1055-1060 MB POLAR HIGH GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO MONTANA WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING OVER WISCONSIN.  850 MB TEMPS GRADUALLY DROP
FROM ABOUT -10C TO -15C DURING THE PERIOD.  MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN A POST FRONTAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING EAST OF THE UPSLOPE SNOWS IN THE ROCKIES INTO THE
MIDWEST.  HOW FAR EAST THIS EXTENDS IS IN QUESTION...SO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

POLAR HIGH SETTLES TOWARD NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WISCONSIN.  850 MB TEMPS FALL DOWN
TO ABOUT -18C.  EVEN WITH BARE GROUND LOOKS LIKE READINGS ONLY IN
THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CLOSED LOW SETTLES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN LAKES.  LOOKS DRY OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BROAD COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN STATES WITH CLOSED
LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS.

FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

KEY TO FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE DETAILS OF
EJECTING UPPER LOW AND WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE SETS
UP.  ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH AND DRIER...WHILE GFS
AND DGEX REMAIN FARTHER NORTH.  GEFS SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN AND DRIER
SOLUTIONS.  FOR NOW A MODEST CHANCE OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE BEST
OPTION...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SNOW
IN NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE EVEN IF LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH PER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH SOME IFR CIGS...ARE ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FOR A BRIEF TIME ...THEN EXPECT
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN PDC AND DBQ LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NE WI THIS MORNING.

TAF SITES STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO PCPN TYPE TO
REMAINS LIQUID. KMSN HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MEASURABLE RAIN
FROM THIS SECOND ROUND...WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF MARKEDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE
RAIN AS IT TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS.

SOUTH WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AT KMSN AND 25-30 KNOTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...EASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. MVFR CIGS...WITH SPOTTY
IFR CIGS...WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SCATTER OUT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT. THE GUSTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE FETCH
WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS...NEARING 4 FEET TOWARDS OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CRAVEN



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