Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280203
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...

The main focus for tonight is on how cold temperatures get and the
potential of a frost/freeze.

We will not have to drop much to get into some potential
frost/freeze temperatures. Some potential limitations to the frost
development is with whether skies will clear, especially north
areas, with the skinny surface ridge moving in and how strong the
winds will be just off the surface. Agricultural partners along
the Wisconsin River in southwest Wisconsin have said that a lot of
fruit trees have started to bud/leaf out in that region, so we
have started to issue frost/freeze headlines in this area. Other
ares in southern Wisconsin will be just as cold tonight, but
reports are that the trees/plants are not as far along there, thus
no advisory, along with any clearing being very late, except near
the Illinois border.

&&

.MARINE...

Wind will be diminishing as a weak ridge of high pressure moves
in from the southwest along the Illinois border region. As this
ridge drifts to the southwest Friday night, persistent northeast
winds will setup across southern Lake Michigan with winds
increasing into Sunday as the next area of low pressure moves
toward the region. This long fetch and persistent wind out of the
northeast should lead to some high waves and small craft advisory
conditions for much of the weekend on into early next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 807 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Still some scattered showers mainly north of a madison to
milwaukee line into early evening. MVFR ceilings will gradually
rise to around 3.5 kft tonight, with some slow decrease in clouds
late tonight. Visibility should remain the VFR. The next chance
for rain showers arrives Friday evening as cigs lower to MVFR,
then IFR later Friday night.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 323 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017)

SHORT TERM...
Tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The main focus for tonight is on how cold temperatures get and the
potential of a frost/freeze.

Before then, there are still some showers that have developed
across southern Wisconsin due to some weak low level instability
associated with cold low level air that has wrapped in on the
southern side of the low/mid level trough. As the system continues
to propagate northward this afternoon/evening, expect that drier
low level air will move in and help to end these showers.

Thanks to the persistent cloud cover and rain showers,
temperatures have stayed fairly cool in the low 40s today, so we
will not have to drop much to get into some potential frost/freeze
temperatures. Some potential limitations to the frost development
is with whether skies will clear with the skinny surface ridge
moving in and how strong the winds will be just off the surface.
Agricultural partners along the Wisconsin River in southwest
Wisconsin have said that a lot of fruit trees have started to
bud/leaf out in that region, so we have started to issue
frost/freeze headlines in this area. Other ares in southern
Wisconsin will be just as cold tonight, but reports are that the
trees/plants are not as far along there, thus no advisory.

Friday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.
After a break in the rain tonight into early Friday, another round
of rain is expected to develop from the southwest as low level
moisture transport increases along a warm front that extends into
northern Illinois. Trends have been to back off on this rainfall
amounts, particularly tomorrow morning. The higher chances will
be further to the south where the moisture will be a bit deeper
along with the lift. While the QPF may be going down, forecast
soundings look like they would support drizzle with some low level
lift in a saturated layer. Have kept precipitation chances around
to account for this potential.

LONG TERM...
Saturday Night through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium.
After another break in the rain/drizzle as the low level moisture
transport shifts east, another system moves into the region for
Saturday night through Monday night. This extended period of
dreary conditions will consist of gusty winds out of the northeast
off of the lake with light to moderate rain throughout. The only
potential period for thunder appears to be on Sunday as the core
of the low moves into the region and brings some weak instability
in along with it.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Steady precipitation has ended for most areas, but some drizzle
may persist for the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will gradually
rise to around 3.5 kft tonight, but clearing is no longer
expected. Visibility should remain the VFR range through the TAF
period. The next chance for rain showers arrives late Friday
evening.

MARINE...
Wind will be diminishing into the evening as an area of low
pressure tracks to the north into southern Canada and a skinny
ridge of high pressure moves in from the southwest. As this ridge
drifts to the southwest Friday night, persistent northeast winds
will setup across southern Lake Michigan with winds increasing
into Sunday as the next area of low pressure moves toward the
region. This long fetch and persistent wind out of the northeast
should lead to some high waves and small craft advisory conditions
for much of the weekend on into early next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ056-057-062-
     063-067-068.

LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Halbach
Friday Night through Thursday...Davis



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