Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 022014
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER FROM AREAS TO THE WEST.
BETTER SHOT AT HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY NEED HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO GET THEM.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE..TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP WILL BE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
FROM THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY AS SOUTHERN WI IS ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW PRECIP AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS GFS WAS PRETTY DRY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF BRINGS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WISCONSIN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT MADISON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER IN THE
DAY.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AT MADISON. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES WILL BE
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MARQUARDT


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