Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 052029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS WI. 850 WAA INCREASES
FROM THE NW. WITHIN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM WAA THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME SHRA AND SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS ACROSS NW WI INTO SE
MN. NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION INCREASING LATER
THIS EVENING THOUGH DEPTH IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ABUNDANT. HOWEVER WITH HRRR/4KM SPC WRF/UPSTREAM TRENDS AND MAJORITY
OF SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS GOING ACROSS
MAINLY SC WI.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ANY LINGERING WAA AC SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH IN THE MRNG HRS SETTING UP A
WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925 TEMPS STILL PROGGD TO REACH THE LOWER
20S CELSIUS...SO SEE NO REASON TO LOWER GOING FCST...WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN ANY OTHER GUIDANCE AVBL. SO MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE
80 DEGREE MARK. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO GO ONSHORE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN SO SOME COOLER READINGS THERE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER SOME IN TIMING OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THROUGH
AREA AS WELL AS 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONES. WILL TIME PCPN WITH
CONSENSUS DEPICTION OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WITH THE
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS LINGERINGS OVER THE FAR SOUTH LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER BY
00Z SUNDAY AS THE FRONTS PUSH INTO NRN IL. DECENT ELEVATED CAPE
APPROACHING 700 J/KG SO GOOD PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
AND  WEAK COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE FAR EAST CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT
925 MB TEMPS SUFFICIENT WITH AFTERNOON  SUN FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID-UPPER 60S INLAND WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR WEST.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MAIN SHORT WAVE THAT CLIPS NE WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON ROTATES OFF TO
THE EAST AROUND JAMES BAY LOW...WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THAT
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX TO REMAIN
NORTH ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AS IT ROTATES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ONLY BRUSHING FAR NE WI WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE. WEAK WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BETWEEN THE CANADIAN LOW AND CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. SLOW UPWARD MODERATION OF 925-
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOW
70S INLAND...AND LOW TO MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST AS WEAK WEST WINDS
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AT BAY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

INITIALLY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING PLAINS 500 MB
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS WEAKEN/EJECT THIS WAVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR A CONSENSUS
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A 6-HOUR DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON NEXT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK...BUT THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST ALLOWING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN TO SWING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY.
THIS KEEPS CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAY SEE CONDITIONS APPROACH OR
REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



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