Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 121649 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1149 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY ADVANCING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS
ROBUST 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HANDLING THIS RAIN WELL...AND BRINGS IT TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED...WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE AREA. LOWERED HIGHS TO
REFLECT THIS...WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAY SEE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

MILWAUKEE IS FORECAST TO REACH 51 DEGREES...AND MADISON 48
DEGREES. THESE VALUES WILL SET NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE CURRENT RECORDS ARE 56 DEGREES AT
MILWAUKEE...SET IN 1975...AND 51 IN MADISON...SET IN 1902.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

RAIN WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TAF SITES BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR
CATEGORY BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG POTENTIAL IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK
NORTHWEST TO WEST TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE SOUTHWARD DURING
THIS TIME. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED...AS GUSTS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.BEACHES...

NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET
AROUND AND SOUTH OF BRADFORD BEACH IN MILWAUKEE. A MODERATE SWIM
RISK EXISTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A 115 KNOT SOUTHWEST/WEST 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THAT WILL
REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY TODAY THAT BECOMES MODERATE TO STRONG THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES JUST TO THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE AHEAD OF A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE RAIN AREA MOVES ACROSS.  MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR SKIES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
THERE IS SOME FROST POTENTIAL...BUT THE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH SO ONLY SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE DELLS AREA.

UNSEASONABLE COOL AIR AND CLOUDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 60 ON SATURDAY AND THE LOWER
TO MID 60S SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET... A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH... AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. THIS COULD BRING A
ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.

THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH EXITING THE UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI... DELAYING IT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON RATHER THAN
MIDDAY MONDAY LIKE THE GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO WISCONSIN IN THE
WAKE OF THAT WEAK MONDAY SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE EASTERN HALF
UNDER A TROUGH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES TO TEMPORARILY RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CIGS EARLY...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AS A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BRINGING AN AREA OF RAIN.

MARINE...

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ


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