Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220843
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MORE SUNSHINE FOR TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. AN EASTERLY WIND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...MUCH COOLER
TODAY COMPARED TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIR WILL
BE QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THIS WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN.  LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD
DIP TO NEAR 40...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL LOW SPOTS.  WARMER
LOWS WILL BE FOUND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON SATURDAY... A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH... 850 MB WARM FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE
REGION WILL SWING NORTHWARD THROUGH WI. THERE IS A VERY SMALL RISK
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS ARE THE LIMITING
FACTORS... SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI IS EVEN WEAKER SATURDAY NIGHT... SO
DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SPEEDS UP... THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK
DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND GIVE US
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM DEPICTS SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY... SO
WENT PRIMARILY WITH SMALLER CHANCES FOR THUNDER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TIMING WITH THIS ROUND
IS LESS CERTAIN SINCE THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH LIFTING
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
IF THAT SYSTEM CAN LIFT NORTHWARD QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT A WARMER DAY IN THE
MID 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WI IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING
DECENT INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... BUT SHEAR
IS WEAK... SO NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.15
TO 1.4 INCHES NEXT WEEK.

AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP REPEATED PRECIP CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM... IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC


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