Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150823
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE LARGE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. AT 500 MB
AN AREA OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND NOON AS THE
CLOSED LOW HEADS TOWARD OHIO LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW AT 850/700 MB
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. 925/850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER STATIONARY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PROGRESSION OF THE
CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY TODAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION TONIGHT ONCE
THE 500 MB CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EXITS.

EXPECTING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE BRISK NORTH WINDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FAR EAST...THEN
DIMINISH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

IT SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUNSHINE IN AT LEAST THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A LITTLE RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW TO HOLD FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT LOOKS
MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AS AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LARGE LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.

TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP BRISK NORTH WINDS
TODAY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  MVFR CIGS SHOULD
RISE TO VFR ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LARGE LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT. TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
BRISK NORTH WINDS TODAY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV


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