Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240238
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
938 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...

.MARINE...Weak to modest nely winds tnt will veer to ely by
morning then sely for Mon-Tue. A Small Craft Advisory may be
needed on Tue if winds and waves become higher than what is
currently forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 654 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017)

UPDATE...The cold front approaching Madison will continue wwd
this evening across south central WI. The mild temps currently
west of the front will lower into the 40s by late evening.
Otherwise low temps for Mon AM will range mostly from 35-40F.

Ssely winds and warm advection will then develop for Mon as a low
amplitude upper trough moves across the nrn and central Great
Plains along with a sfc trough moving into wrn MN by late in the
day. Temps will approach 70F once again well inland from Lake MI.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tnt and Mon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...

The cold front moved through southeast WI early this afternoon
and temperatures dropped over 20 degrees in 20 minutes. That front
that raced down Lake Michigan will gradually traverse inland
through the early evening hours.

Temperatures will be quite chilly tonight with the dry air in
place... upper 30s to lower 40s. Can`t rule out some patchy frost
in low spots due to light winds and good radiational cooling.

Another warm and dry day is on tap for Monday, inland from the
lake. A steady southeast breeze will keep lakeshore temps from
rising above 60. Inland temps will approach 70 with the gusty
southeast winds.

LONG TERM...

Warm conditions will continue Tuesday and even into Wednesday for
far southeast Wisconsin. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching
low will keep us mild. Dry air in the low levels and the slowing
system will help to keep showers out of our area until Tuesday
night. The associated cold front is not expected to swing through
southeast WI until Wed afternoon or event Thu morning, depending
on the model.

Models are showing some elevated instability in the warm sector of
this slow-moving system, so kept thunder chances in the forecast
for Tue night through Wed.

Thursday and Friday highs will only be in the 50s with weak high
pressure overhead. The next system will arrive Friday night and
likely hang around through the weekend. This one has the potential
to bring a lot of rain to southern WI, so stay tuned.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Abrupt wind shift to the northeast with the passage of a cold
front this afternoon. The location of the front is apparent on
radar. VFR conditions through the TAF period.

MARINE...

Gusty northeast winds will diminish this evening, then remain
light out of the east through mid Monday morning. Steady easterly
winds will build higher waves for Monday and Tuesday, but waves
and wind gusts are expected to remain just below small craft
advisory criteria.

FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast for tomorrow
(Monday). No headline is expected since conditions will be just
under the critical level.

Dewpoints are expected to mix out into the lower 30s once again on
Monday, so minimum relative humidity values will be in the 20 to
30 percent range inland. Breezy southeast winds with gusts in the
20 to 30 mph range are of concern. The fuels are quite dry, but
the Fine Fuel Moisture Code is only forecast to be around 90 which
is not quite meeting criteria for headlines. Highs on Monday will
be in the upper 60s to around 70, also below headline thresholds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce


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