Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION
AND WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE WESTERN CWA...TRIMMING IT BACK
BY A TIER OF COUNTIES.  WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS
AT MOST PLACES ARE AOA 1 MILE.  THERE IS SOME WEAK WIND FROM THE
WEST LIKELY KEEPING THINGS STIRRED UP ENOUGH. A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW EVEN MORE AND MAY MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS ALWAYS A
TOUGH CALL...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOWERING SUN
ANGLE. THE THINKING AMONG THE SURROUNDING OFFICES IS THAT THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY TODAY. EVEN IF THEY DO
CLEAR...THERE/S PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE IT. ALSO...ANY
CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... SPREADING MORE LOWER CLOUDS IN. THE SHORT
RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS WAA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT/S PERSISTENCE AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND THEN ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AND
POSSIBLY SCOUR OUT WITH RESPECT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE THE LOW WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
EVEN MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING 70
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TIMING HOLDS.

KEPT SOME POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT SOME POPS TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WE CAN CLEAR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS
COMPLETELY.  GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LOWER SUN ANGLE...THIS GETS
TOUGHER AND TOUGHER.  THE CURRENT TAFS...BEFORE 12Z...SHOW CLEARING
COMING IN...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP IT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE NEW
TAFS AT 12Z.

WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN BY EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FROM THIS AND THIS WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE LOWER CIGS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-056-
     062-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



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