Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 050214
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
914 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...INCLUDED SAUK COUNTY IN FROST ADVISORY AS EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. ALSO...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 925H TEMPS AROUND 4C WITH A MODERATE INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FROST BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PATCHY.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND DEPARTING UPPER LOW SKIMS EASTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
PIVOTS AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN SATURATED
AIR OVER OUR EASTERN THREE TAF SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MAINLY SCT TO BKN CIGS OF 4 KFT AS WINDS LOOK TO STAY FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS TO THE WEST. MSN LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LAKE BREEZE COULD ACTIVATE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TURN WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...BLUSTERY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4 FEET INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HENCE NO CHANGE
PLANNED FOR ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WIDESPREAD SC ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA PROGGD TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN WI. MUCH OF THE WRN CWA ALREADY SHOWING MORE OF A DIURNAL
APPEARANCE AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE LLVL
RH PROGS AND MOS DATA SUPPORT KEEPING THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE STUBBORN
IN THE EAST CLOSER TO INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND 500
MILLIBAR SHEAR AXIS ON NW PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW. IN
FACT RAIN ACRS LWR MI BACKING UP A BIT INTO SRN LAKE MI AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR WEST THIS MAKES IT BUT FOR NOW PROGS SUGGEST
THIS SHIELD OF RAIN STAYS OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
ACRS SW LWR MI INTO SRN LAKE MI. SO CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST AND SE
POTENTIALLY FURTHER REINFORCED BY THIS FEATURE AND LLVL RH PROGS
SUGGEST THIS. 925/850 TURNS MORE NE OFF THE LAKE ALTHOUGH DELTA T
VALUES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SFC RIDGE AXIS NUDGES INTO WRN WI
LATER IN THE NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NW CWA AND ALSO
THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF THE CWA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE LIGHTEST
WINDS TAKING SHAPE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SO
HAVE HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR NOW. THIS IS
AN AREA PROGGD TO BE MOST VULNERABLE TO AREAS OF FROST VS PATCHY
FROST. IF WINDS DECOUPLE QUICKER ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN SC MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED BUT THIS IS A START BASED ON CONFIDENCE ON MOST IDEAL
CONDITIONS SETTING UP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND NW PERIPHERY OF 500
MILLIBAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DECREASE WITH TIME. WAA ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. 925 TEMPS REBOUND TO 10-13C...FROM SE TO NW WITHIN CWA.
SO EXPECTING A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ONLY REACHES THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS WITH
THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BUT THE 700 MB RH IS RATHER DRY. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL OCCUR
FRIDAY...BUT NOT REACH TOO FAR INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE DOWN THE SHORELINE AREAS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHING
WELL EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS REACHES THE IOWA AREA TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.

A LARGE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
A BROAD SURFACE LOW EXITS THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP
SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER. THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION
STARTING MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
STILL LINGERS SOME LIGHT RAIN. WITH A PERSISTENT EAST WINDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER COOL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR SC DECK WIDESPREAD ACRS SRN WI. THIS IS
WITHIN CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
KEEPING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. LLVL RH PROGS/NAM MOS KEEPS
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE IN SE WI TNGT AS 925/850 FLOW SHIFTS MORE NE
OFF LAKE MI. SFC RDG AXIS BUILDS INTO WRN WI LATE TNGT THOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS A BIT IN ERN WI. MUCH MORE SUNSHINE TAKES
HOLD FOR FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN AND 500 FLOW TRENDING
TOWARDS MORE OF A BROAD NNW ANTICYCLONIC REGIME.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...THE FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT
12-14Z THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH
9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-056.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK
UPDATE AVIATION...JTS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ


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