Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FNUS73 KMKX 281203
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Ice Age M...Dane County Parks
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
703 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on March 28.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

While fuels aren`t particularly dry, there are some fire weather
concerns today as model soundings show a well mixed dry
boundary layer this afternoon amid continuing westerly winds
around 15 to 20 mph.  Preferred areas for lower drops to 20 to
25% will be from Madison westward into the southern reaches of the
Driftless Area and the Wisconsin River Valley, as HREF guidance
shows ensemble mean RH values dropping into the upper 20s west of Madison,
with ensemble min RH values dropping even further into the upper
teens. Min RHs may also drop to 25% or lower in the Kettle Moraine.

For the Ice Age Burn, west winds look to remain uniform through the
mixed layer today. This will likely advect smoke east over Raymond Road
neighborhoods further east. Min RH values should drop to near 25%, although
we will have to monitor for RHs lower than this, potentially as low as 20%,
as we go through the afternoon if daytime mixing becomes more vigorous
than expected. Wind coming down the slightly higher elevation to the west of
the burn site may cause some subtle downsloping into the burn site today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........31 at ignition...Max 46.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /33300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /66400 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   5   4   3   3   3   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  34  37  40  41  43  45  44
RH..............49  43  37  33  31  28  26  27
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  18  17  18  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  18  18  17  17  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100033  43  55  62  66  64  65  58

$$
Forecaster...Miller
Requested by...Lars Higdon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408717.0/MKX
.DELDT 03/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL higdon.lars@countyofdane.com


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