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000
FXUS64 KEWX 190439 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS INVADE THE I35 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BREAK AND CIGS TO LIFT BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AROUND 17Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ABOUT 10 TO 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

UPDATE...
THE EARLIER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. RECENTLY TWO
SHOWERS DEVELOPED...BUT THEY HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. WILL REMOVE
ISOLATED POP MENTION OUT WEST. HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
18Z MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID WEEK ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE SOME STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT OR ABOUT 10Z THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY ALONG THE I35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 17Z SUNDAY. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  95  73  94  72 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  71  93  71 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  95  71  94  71 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  71  92  69 /  -   10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75 102  75 102  75 /  -   10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  71  91  69 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  97  71  97  72 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  94  72  93  72 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  93  75  92  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  95  72  94  72 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  95  72  93  73 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04