Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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864 FXUS64 KHUN 091425 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 925 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 925 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The good news is that the severe threat has finally ended across north AL and southern middle TN after a long night of damaging winds, hail, and likely several tornadoes. Flash flooding has become the primary concern late this morning, with multiple impassable roads and mudslides reported across the area after 4-5" of rain has fallen just north of the TN River. Stratiform rain will continue to push southeast through the area and is now mostly east of the I-65 corridor. High pressure will begin to push into the region, but cooler temperatures will lag behind as a cold front slowly pushes its way through the area later today. Winds will veer to the northwest into the evening along the front, and could be gusty at times. Sky cover will clear from west to east this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Another short wave is expected to pass across the region tonight, but the better dynamic lift is expected to be to our south. Isentropic progs indicate some lift/saturation aloft over our area during the evening, and peaking overnight. However, there is disagreement among regional/global models over the degree of saturation in addition to lift/instability. POPs were kept rather low (20s to 30s) for the nighttime period due to the uncertainty with the northern extent of precipitation. A shortwave trough digging southward into the Grt Lakes early this morning will phase with a Northern Plains trough and carve out a broader long wave trough in the eastern CONUS on Friday. As a result a cooler, continental air mass will move into the TN Valley late tonight and Friday. This eastern CONUS trough pattern will tend to be maintained through Sunday, with slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the period. Successive shortwave maxima rotating around the western flank of the parent upr trough could bring a bout or two of increased cloudiness, but chances appear too low for any RA/SHRA to include in the forecast at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A partially closed upr low in the West CONUS will be ejected eastward as heights begin to fall in the northern Rockies from late Sunday into Monday. Moisture advection/ascent ahead of the pending upr trough could begin to bring rain to the area as early as Monday morning. Instability will increase gradually on Monday, but forecast thermal profiles just appear marginally unstable at this time, limiting updraft strength and severe potential. This trough may become partially closed again as it makes its way eastward across the OH/TN Valley regions, with chances for showers/thunderstorms continuing into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A line of SHRA/TSRA is moving slowly SWRD across the area and is expected to continue impacting KMSL and KHSV thru ~14Z. A line of +TSRA have just moved into KMSL and are expected to continue there after 12Z with predom predom MVFR/IFR thru 13Z. An end to precipitation and a return to VFR conditions is expected after 14Z, although gusty winds are expected to develop at both sites. However, the return of gusty winds could be modified/delayed by the potential for lingering rain conditions. Lighter, gradually veering winds are expected to return by ~02Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...KDW