Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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011 FXUS63 KMPX 122008 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 308 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Air Quality Advisory for Western WI until 10 AM Monday and Air Quality Alert for all of Minnesota until 12 PM Monday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon across southern MN. A few storms could contain gusty winds and potentially sub-severe hail. - Mostly Monday and Tuesday, with a few chances for showers and storms later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Turning out to be a summer sampler as current temperature observations reporting low to mid 80s, even isolated upper 80s for parts of central/southern MN and western WI. These warm temps will not reside long as a cold front continues to make its way from the NW to the SE across Minnesota this afternoon. This frontal boundary is well-defined on visible satellite as a stratocu field stretches from the Twin Ports down past Sioux Falls, SD. Directly behind this front, Canadian wildfire smoke has reached much of northern MN and will continue to make its way southeast. Just ahead of this frontal boundary across south-central MN, an area of more agitated cu has initiated into showers and thunderstorms. Although severe storms are not expected, today`s storm environment favors mainly gusty winds given inverted-V forecast soundings coupled with steep low-level lapse rates of 9 deg C/km. As for the wild fire smoke, air quality is expected to be impacted the most this evening through late tonight (for about 6-8 hours). Then air quality levels will improve slightly to the orange category early tomorrow morning. Thus, through collaboration with the MPCA and the WI DNR, Air quality headlines have been issued for western WI through 10 AM Monday and central and southern MN through 12 PM Monday. The start of the work week will be beautiful thanks to elongated ridging to our west with low pressure across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Northeasterly flow will help keep temperatures in the low-70s with mostly clear skies and potential some patchy remnants of wild fire smoke. As mentioned in the previous discussion the latter half of next week looks to bring our next chances of rainfall. A couple of shortwaves out ahead of a developing trough over the west-central CONUS are progged to track across MN/WI Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing for this period of rainfall continues to remain weak amongst forecast soundings therefore continued mentions of mainly rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible during this time. Forecasted highs will warm back up to near 80 degrees by Friday before another system proceeds through by next weekend. Forecasted QPF amounts will be advertised once ensemble membership confidence increases. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The Canadian wildfire smoke will move into the region by the mid-afternoon and evening. While conditions should remain VFR, a brief window of a few hours below VFR VSBY cannot be ruled out for AXN/STC. There is also a slim chance for a few thunderstorms for southern MN and western WI, with around a 20 percent chance for MKT/EAU decreasing for sites more to the north. VFR conditions should remain throughout the period. Wind gusts drop off this evening and turn to the north or NNE by daybreak Monday. Smoke should exit by Mid-late morning. KMSP... Wildfire smoke on track to arrive at MSP later this afternoon. While it should remain VFR, a brief window of sub-VFR VSBY cannot be ruled out. -TSRA chances remain off to the south of the terminal and a non-issue. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SE 10-15kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind W 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...BPH