Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXXX12 KWNP 281231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels as AR 3615 (S13W60,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a M7.1/1N flare at 28/0629 UTC. Region
3615 continued to be the largest, most complex region on the visible
disk while undergoing some minor consolidation in its trailing spots.
The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.

The aforementioned M-class flare from AR 3615 did not appear to result
in a CME. However, GOES-16 SUVI 304 angstroms imagery suggests that a
C8.4 flare at 28/0943 UTC from Region 3615 did result in ejecta. While
an Earth-directed component is unlikely, we currently await LASCO
coronagraph imagery to conduct a proper analysis.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong),
over 28-29 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615.
Probabilities decrease to just a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 30 Mar as AR 3615 rotates beyond the western
limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but
below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at
normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 29
Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615.
Probabilities for an event decrease to just a slight chance on 30 Mar as
AR 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.  There is a chance for the
greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels beginning on 28
Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a CME that left the
Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 1-5 nT, and the Bz component was
at or near neutral. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 500 km/s to
~435 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly in a positive
solar sector.

.Forecast...
Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return by late 28
Mar. Slighted elevated parameters are possible again by late 29 Mar
under weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences, which will continue
through 30 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of 29
Mar. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 29-30 Mar due to weak,
negative polarity CH HSS effects.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.