Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
081 FXUS62 KMLB 021413 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1013 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Mostly quiet on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this morning, with a few isolated showers in the offshore waters of the Atlantic. Surface observations and Satellite data shows mostly sunny skies with a few lower and upper level clouds along the coast. Upper level ridging will remain in place with light and variable winds this morning becoming onshore and increasing to around 10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push inland. Much like yesterday, the sea breeze collision will occur across the western interior and more towards the western side of the peninsula. Isolated showers and lightning storms (PoP 20 percent) will be possible across the western interior this afternoon where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. The main threats with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions. Warm today with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the interior. Tonight, expect dry conditions to continue under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s with light and variable winds. Forecast remains on track with no major changes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 1006 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Onshore winds will increase to 8-10 KT by late morning. The east coast sea breeze is expected to form this afternoon and push inland, increasing winds to around 12 KT. Winds will then become light once again overnight. Isolated showers and storms will be possible late this afternoon, mainly around LEE. However confidence and coverage remains too low to include VCSH/VCTS in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure remains over the local area. Onshore flow will persist, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon, increasing the winds to around 15 KT before decreasing to 5-10 KT overnight. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated showers will be possible today, mainly in the offshore waters. A lightning storm or two can not be ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Min RH values between 40-45% are forecast through this weekend across the interior, with higher values for coastal areas. Drier conditions are forecast next week, as min RH once again falls to around 35% for much of the area by mid-week. Isolated lightning storms will be possible today well inland, with additional chances this weekend. However, widespread beneficial rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. High temperatures will climb to well above normal through the period, with highs today in the mid-80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90 over the interior increasing to as high as the lower to mid-90s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Today-Tonight...High pressure persists over the western Atlantic today, with the ridge axis stretching into Florida. The near- summer-like pattern will continue today, with the east coast sea breeze developing late morning, then pushing inland into the afternoon. A sea breeze collision is forecast west of Orlando late this afternoon. While this pattern would typically produce higher rain chances during the summer months, limited available moisture today is forecast to inhibit convection. PoPs 15-20% from around Orlando westward mid to late afternoon will be possible thanks to PWATs around 1.15-1.25". However, significant dry air in the mid and upper levels (above 700mb) will hinder deep updraft development, especially near the coast. Nonetheless, CAMs do show a few showers and storms developing near Lake County this afternoon. The main threats with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Any development is forecast to push into west central Florida by the evening hours. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid-80s along the coast and the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Tonight, dry conditions prevailing, under partly cloudy skies. Onshore winds will become light. Overnight low temperatures will be near-normal for this time of year in the mid to upper 60s. Friday-Sunday...Mid-upper level ridging generally persists, with the ridge amplifying a fair amount Friday, but then a few shortwaves swinging through over the weekend will provide a modest lowering of heights. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic extending across Florida on Friday retreats well offshore, replaced by another area of high pressure extending from the Canadian maritimes down the Atlantic seaboard and towards the Caribbean. The increase in heights Friday looks to kill the little instability we previously had, and a mostly dry day is expected. Late Saturday and Sunday, moisture from a decaying frontal boundary stretching down to the Southeast US sags into Florida, increasing PWATs from 1.0-1.2" early Saturday to 1.4-1.6" Sunday, which combined with lowering of heights from the shortwaves, brings chances for rain and lightning storm back. Instability isn`t impressive, with MUCAPE generally 500-700 J/kg, but 500mb temperatures around -10C will allow any convection that becomes deep to produce lightning and gusty winds. Have 20 pct PoPs accompanied with a slight chance of lightning storms areawide Saturday (which looks to be more in the late evening when higher moisture arrives) and Sunday. Above normal temperatures continue, warmest on Friday with highs in the U80s-90 inland, and L-M80s along the coastal corridor thanks to onshore flow and the sea breeze, dropping a degree a two Saturday and Sunday thanks to higher cloud cover. Overnight lows in the M60s-70. Light easterly to southeasterly winds in the overnight and early morning pick up to 10-15 mph from the east in the afternoon thanks to sea breeze enhancement. Monday-Thursday...A little bit of disagreement between the GFS and ECM over how much moisture we keep going in next week, with the GFS staying 1.2-1.4" or so and the ECM dropping as low as 1.1-1.3", but mid-level ridging building from the Gulf of Mexico looks to shut the door on rain chances. Better agreement for dry conditions mid-week onward as GFS PWATs also decrease to the 1.1-1.3" range. Surface high pressure building back across the Atlantic basin with the ridge axis extending across Central to South Florida will result in southeasterly flow Monday and Tuesday veering southerly Wednesday, and southwesterly to westerly late in the week (turning onshore daily with the sea breeze). Combined with subsidence from the ridging aloft, temperatures will gradually increase through the week as high in the U80s-90 inland and L-M80s along the coastal corridor Monday afternoon, become well above normal in the M-U90s inland and U80-L90s along the coastal corridor Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows increase from the M60s-70 to the U60-L70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 66 84 67 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 89 67 89 67 / 20 0 10 0 MLB 83 69 84 70 / 10 0 10 0 VRB 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 10 10 LEE 89 68 89 69 / 20 0 10 0 SFB 89 67 88 67 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 89 68 89 68 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 85 66 84 67 / 10 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Watson/Law