Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
259 FXUS62 KMLB 051922 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... ...Near Record Temperatures Mid to Late Week... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Current-Tonight...Line of showers steadily moving inland this afternoon along the ECSB. Individual cell movement is slow and erratic. This could allow for some showers and/or ISOLD storms to drop locally heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Additional threats include occasional to frequent (couple storms) lightning strikes and brief gusty winds. Highest PoPs (40-50pct) will occur over the interior and toward the Kissimmee River and Lake County where a sea breeze collision will occur late today. PoPs diminish back toward the east coast. All activity will wind down thru early- mid evening. Mostly dry overnight. Lows will remain warm/mild and well into the 60s and L70s. SERLY gusty winds this afternoon will become light this evening/overnight. Mon...Shortwave ridging aloft will quickly push east into the western Atlc as weak shortwave troughing moves across the FL peninsula with zonal flow returning. Surface ridging will slide south across the central FL peninsula during the day. The GFS shows some drier PWATs moving onto the Treasure Coast, so highest PoPs on this day (30-40pct) will be located across the I-4 corridor and northward where there is a bit deeper moisture. Typically 20pct or less elsewhere across ECFL. Similar high temps as the previous day with maxes in the M80s along the coast and U80s to around 90F over the interior; perhaps a couple L90s well inland. Tuesday-Thursday...The weather pattern will remain consistent into midweek with high pressure over the western Atlantic settling southeast of Bermuda and northeast of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level ridge will build over the Southeastern US with 500mb heights reaching 588-590dm over central Florida Thursday. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible (PoPs ~20-30%) across the interior west of I-95 Tuesday afternoon with the greatest chance for rain/storms where a sea breeze collision is expected to occur over western Orange, northwest Osceola, Lake, and Volusia counties. Offshore flow is forecast to develop Wednesday and become stronger into Thursday which will keep mentionable rain chances out of the forecast and allow temperatures to warm above normal each afternoon. Near record highs are forecast with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and the mid to upper 90s across the interior. Dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s will result in heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will back onshore each afternoon at around 10-15mph under mostly sunny skies. Friday-Saturday...The mid/upper level ridge over Florida is forecast to breakdown and weaken Thursday evening into Friday ahead of a major shortwave trough that`s expected to deepen over the Southeastern US into Friday evening. Deterministic models are in good agreement that a cold front will weaken and move east- southeast across central Florida Friday night into Saturday. Isolated showers and lightning storms (PoPs ~20-30%) are forecast to develop late Friday into early Saturday afternoon. However, about 1/4th of ensemble members keep the front together as it moves across central Florida which would likely result in higher rain chances than guidance currently suggests. At this time, the primary hazards associated with any storms that develop are brief heavy rainfall, occasional lighting strikes, and gusty winds. Breezy west to southwest winds Friday are expected to veer northwest Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach near records again Friday with temperatures in the low to upper 90s. Lows are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Continued VFR outside of brief reductions to CIGs/VSBYs in/around aftn-evening convection; mainly west of I-95. There is still forecast a late day sea breeze collision well inland. Expect slow/erratic movement of SCT showers/ISOLD lightning storms due to weak steering flow. SERLY winds 10-15 kts with some higher gusts will diminish in the evening becoming light overnight. Will continue to consider "Vicinity" and/or "Tempo" wording as necessary. Drier air and lower coverage on Mon as SE/E flow continues 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Afternoon-Tonight-Mon...Few showers over the local waters this afternoon and see no reason why this trend won`t continue tonight, esp over the Gulf Stream. ESE/SE winds 10-16 kts with some higher gusts will diminish a bit overnight-daybreak to 7-12 kts areawide. Similar speeds into Mon, but expect a little stronger/gustier onshore component along the coast surrounding sea breeze formation and march inland. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and up to 4 ft offshore at times. Tuesday-Thursday...High pressure will remain in control over the western Atlantic. East to southeast winds at 10 to 15kts will veer offshore overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, then back onshore in the afternoon Wednesday, as well as Thursday and increase into the afternoon at 15-20kts. Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4ft Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Previous through Extended...Increasing heat and slightly drier conditions this week will produce min RH values falling to 30-35% for much of the interior by mid-week. ISOLD lightning storms will be possible this evening inland and again on Mon over the interior late day/early evening. Isold showers near the coast in the mornings but widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will gradually warm each day, reaching the mid 90s across the interior by Wed and continue Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 85 68 89 / 10 20 0 20 MCO 69 89 69 92 / 10 30 0 30 MLB 70 84 69 87 / 10 20 0 10 VRB 68 86 67 88 / 10 10 0 10 LEE 70 89 70 92 / 20 30 0 20 SFB 68 89 69 92 / 10 30 10 20 ORL 70 90 70 92 / 10 30 0 30 FPR 68 85 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM...Fehling AVIATION...Sedlock