954
AXNT20 KNHC 031754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to
04N23W, 04N30W, 03N40W, to 03N51W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between
60W and 90W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
are from 26N northward. Inland precipitation, that covers the
areas that are between east Texas and Mississippi, is related to
some inland outflow boundaries. It is possible that some of that
precipitation may be reaching the coastal waters that are between
Texas and Mississippi.

A NW-to-SE oriented interior Mexico surface trough extends from
the Texas Big Bend, to 21N100W, to northern Guatemala.

Mostly moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are in the eastern
half of the area. Fresh and moderate SE winds are in the offshore
waters of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are
in the coastal waters from Mexico to south Texas. span the entire
area. Moderate to rough seas are from 22N to 24N between 90W and
92W. Slight seas are from 88W eastward, and from 26N northward
between 88W and 90W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are in the eastern half of the
area. Moderate seas, ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet, are in the
offshore waters of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico. Moderate
seas that range from 4 feet to 5 feet are in the rest of the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over Florida
and lower pressures in the western Gulf will support moderate to
fresh winds over the majority of the Gulf of Mexico well into next
week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night for the
next few days near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula due
to a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A flat and weak surface pressure gradient is in the Caribbean Sea.
A 1019 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center is near 32N71W.

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between
60W and 90W. One surface trough is along 64W/67W from Venezuela to
22N in the Atlantic Ocean. A second surface trough is along
18N79W 12N74W. Precipitation: scattered strong is between the two
surface troughs, from 14N to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Other
isolated moderate is from 80W eastward. Please, refer to local
weather bureau advisories for information regarding any heavy
rainfall or related flooding. The two surface troughs have
disrupted the typical trade wind regime that normally is in the
Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are to the east of the 64W/67W surface
trough. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are between the
64W/67W surface trough and 80W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE
to E winds are from Honduras northward from 80W westward. Moderate
or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area. Slight to
moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area. Slight
seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 03/1200 UTC, are: 0.69 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.46 in Curacao;
0.18 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.16 in Freeport in the Bahamas;
and 0.14 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. These winds will
gradually subside into the weekend as the related pressure
gradient relaxes. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected
in the northwestern Caribbean into tonight, and in the Windward
Passage nightly through the weekend. Mainly moderate winds are
expected over the remainder of the area through early next week.
Upper-level divergence east of an upper-level trough that extends
from the western Atlantic south to near 15N between 70W and 80W is
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 15N
between 69W and 75W. This activity is moving eastward, and is
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between
60W and 90W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 500 nm
to 600 nm to the west and to the northwest of 28N62W 22N73W 19N76W
13N71W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are between the
surface trough/remnant cold front of the next paragraph and the SE
Bahamas. Persistent heavy rainfall for the rest of the week is
possible in this part of the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall
totals in inches, for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC, are:
0.16 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

One surface trough is along 31N58W 24N65W. A 1019 mb Atlantic
Ocean high pressure center is near 32N71W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the west and northwest of the 31N58W
24N65W surface trough. A second surface trough, that is the
remnant of an earlier cold front, is along 31N29W 26N40W 22N51W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the trough. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N49W,
to the northwest of the surface trough. Mostly moderate seas,
with some smaller areas of moderate to rough seas, are to the
north of the second surface trough.

Moderate seas cover nearly the remainder of the entire area of
the Atlantic Ocean. One exception is for slight seas from 73W
westward, and from 27N northward from 31N58W 24N65W trough
northwestward. A second exception is for moderate to rough seas
from the ITCZ to 12N between 36W and 55W. Mostly moderate to some
fresh NE winds are from 31N14W 25N31W 17N45W 12N57W southward.
Mostly moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are within 660 nm to
the north of the 31N14W-to-12N57W line. Mostly moderate to some
fresh NE winds are from 28N southward between the 31N58W 24N65W
surface trough and 80W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A trough extends from near 31N59W to 24N66W, while high pressure
is over the remainder of the area. Meanwhile, the northern portion
of a Caribbean trough is along 66W south of 24N. Mostly moderate
easterly winds are on either side of the trough south of 24N. An
upper trough extends from 31N64W southwestward to central Cuba.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are east of this trough south
of 24N. Some of this activity may be accompanied by strong gusty
winds and frequent lightning. The troughs will shift eastward
through the weekend as a cold front drops southward over the
eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of the area
Mon. High pressure will then settle over the area through Tue
night.

$$
mt/ja