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000
FXUS64 KBMX 180244
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
944 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
PUSHED INTO GEORGIA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE OVERALL MOTION OF THESE STORMS
IS TO THE NORTHEAST BUT A LINE IS TRYING TO FILL IN DOWN TOWARDS
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 1 AM WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AFTER 4 AM. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STORMS SHOULD
LACK ORGANIZATION. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT IF A STORM GOES OVER AN AREA
THAT RECEIVED AMPLE RAINFALL TODAY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH TS ARE NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY
MAJOR TERMINALS DIRECTLY. SOME VCTS COULD CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AT BHM..ANB...AND TOI...BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW STRONGER ACTIVITY
PUSHING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXPECT MVFR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET GIVEN
THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SHORT RANGE
HI-RES SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE HANDLED THE LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS WELL.
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.
OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCTS WORDING AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BECOMES.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 703 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH ONE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
TRACK EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS MECHANISM
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF I-20.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER BEHIND FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS IN THE DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DECIDED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS TO ALLOW
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS WEST
ALABAMA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  84  69  89  61 /  60  80  40  10  10
ANNISTON    70  84  70  89  64 /  50  80  50  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  72  84  70  89  66 /  60  80  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  71  86  71  92  66 /  60  80  50  20  10
CALERA      71  84  70  89  67 /  50  80  50  20  10
AUBURN      70  84  71  89  67 /  40  60  60  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  92  68 /  30  60  60  30  20
TROY        69  88  73  91  66 /  60  60  60  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$