763
FXUS64 KBMX 051701
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1201 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

This afternoon, southerly flow will bring moisture and warm air to
the area. Isolated diurnal convection is expected across the entire
state. A few thunderstorms could be momentarily strong with
instabilities between 1500 and 2000 j/kg, and a weak wind profile
aloft. Anything that does form could produce high rainfall rates
with PW values around the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Highs today will be in up to 5-7 degrees above normal.

This evening, a weak low will approach from the east and move to the
north and northeast across northern MS. Activity associated with
this low is expected to move towards Alabama, but weaken as it
reaches the state line. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
expected with this system passing. The main coverage is going to
be across the northern half of the state, closer to the system as
it moves to the northeast. The southern half of the state could
see isolated showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, though
the greater instability and forcing will be across the northern
half of the state.

A weak mid level jet will move through overnight, allowing for the
wind profile to increase in speed, though instabilities will be
decreasing after sunset tonight. Will maintain that a few isolated
storms in the northern half of the state could be strong with the
forcing present. PW values will remain high with high rainfall rates
possible. By early morning Monday, before sunrise, most activity
should move east. With plenty of low level moisture, there could be
fog in several areas, especially in the south and west where the
rain will end earlier in the night, and the clouds are expected to
become more broken. In areas of the north and east, overcast skies
are expected to remain through much of the night, limiting fog
development. Will have to keep an eye on how quickly/slowly the rain
moves east to determine coverage of any fog that develops.

Monday, upper levels take on a more westerly direction with PW
values decreasing from around 1.6 to around 1.2 or 1.3 inches, which
is around the 75th percentile. Isolated to scattered diurnal
convection is expected through the early afternoon into the evening
across all of Central AL. A few CAMs are showing increased
instabilities, closer to around 2500 j/kg in the western half of the
state , though the wind profile still appears weak. All activity
should weaken with sunset. High temperatures on Monday will be
several degrees above normal.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will be in place during the coming
week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will run each day through
early Friday morning, as a late season cold front sweeps through
Central Alabama. Convection across the northwestern counties Tuesday
and Wednesday may be strong and will need to be monitored for any
isolated severe potential in the form of damaging wind and hail.

Meanwhile, strong southerly surface flow will bring some of the
warmest days so far this year. Winds may gust as high as 15-20 mph
at times Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. High temperatures will
soar into the upper 80s, perhaps even lows 90s across the southern
counties, Tuesday through Thursday.

We are beginning to monitor the Thursday evening timeframe for the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an MCS-
like setup moving west to east across the area. This, in advance of
the aforementioned cold front, may pose a damaging wind and hail
threat, owing to fairly steep lapse rates around 7.5 C/km and bulk
shear values of 50-55 kts. However, the better forcing will be
removed to the north of Alabama, so will need to further evaluate
the potential over the next few forecast cycles.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the state
this afternoon. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage, have
left VCSH in for now and will update if convection appears to
impact any TAF site. Overnight, a low pressure will bring more
scattered activity, mainly to all sites but KMGM and KTOI through
the early morning Monday. Plenty of low level moisture could keep
clouds at MVFR overnight. Depending on timing and amount of
rainfall overnight, KMGM and KTOI might see fog development.
Confidence was low so left mention out of TAF for now.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms are possible today, Monday, and
Tuesday. Rain amounts could be locally heavy where thunderstorms
track, on the order of around one inch. With increasing moisture,
minimum RH values will be above 40-45 percent each afternoon. 20-
foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to
southwest, though gusts to around 20 mph will be possible at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  65  86  65 /  30  60  40  30
Anniston    86  66  86  66 /  30  50  40  20
Birmingham  88  68  86  68 /  30  50  40  20
Tuscaloosa  88  68  86  68 /  40  50  40  20
Calera      87  68  85  67 /  30  50  40  20
Auburn      85  69  85  67 /  40  30  40  20
Montgomery  88  69  89  67 /  30  20  40  10
Troy        87  67  89  67 /  30  20  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...24