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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  90  64  89 /  50  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  66  89  66  89 /  60  30  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  67  90  68  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  67  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      87  67  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      86  66  88  66  88 /  50  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  90  67  91  66  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        89  67  89  64  89 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$