000
FXUS64 KBMX 161944
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY TRAVERSING THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-20. THERE COULD BE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH MORE
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE HANGING
AROUND ON SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST. HEIGHT RISES
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY PUT
AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL ACCORDINGLY BE ON THE
RISE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN WITH SOME SPOTS
TOPPING 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
A MVFR LAYER OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE RAGGED
OR PATCHY AT TIMES. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SOME RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST NEAR TCL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WINDS GENERALLY CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH 5 TO 10 KTS IN THE DAY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  81  62  82  65 /  20  50  50  50  40
ANNISTON    61  83  64  82  66 /  20  40  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  66  82  67  84  68 /  20  50  30  20  20
CALERA      63  82  65  82  68 /  20  40  30  30  30
AUBURN      63  83  64  85  67 /  10  20  20  30  20
MONTGOMERY  63  86  66  86  69 /  10  30  20  20  20
TROY        61  86  64  86  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/88