000
FXUS64 KBMX 120447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA TO OUR WEST
AND MODEL FORECAST OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND HUMIDITY VALUES...IT
SEEMS THAT THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY
WERE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE. 1000-8500MB THICKNESS FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 5 TO 7 METERS HIGHER THAN
TODAY...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A TWO DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. ALSO...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY PLOTS ARE DRIER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
12Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A
BRIEF PERIOD CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN VISIBILITIES COULD DIP
DOWN TO 5SM OR LOWER DUE TO LIGHT FOG. IF LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT
OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST I MIGHT CONSIDER KEEPING SOME HAZY
CONDITIONS IN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A WEST
WIND EXPECTED...ANY MORNING FOG/MIST/HAZE SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$