000
FXUS64 KBMX 232014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AROUND 15 MPH. A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DOWN A COOL ENOUGH
AIR MASS THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND KEEPING THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF ALABAMA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...AND IT TRIES TO BRING SOME
CONVECTION INTO EXTREME NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST.


58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BIG WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION AND CAUSE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY.
HELLO SUMMERTIME!


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH DRIER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
FOR TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

88


&&

.CLIMATE...

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.

RECORDSFORECAST

BIRMINGHAM4548

TUSCALOOSA5149

MONTGOMERY5152

ANNISTON4747


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  73  42  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    57  74  47  77  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  77  48  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  80  49  82  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      59  79  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      60  78  51  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  63  82  52  83  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        60  81  48  81  49 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$