524
FXUS64 KJAN 080556
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1256 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently a cold front has stalled just northeast of our area. As
a weak shortwave moves through the area tonight expect
increasingly dry and cloudy conditions. A large upper-level low
will persist over northern plains states that will help push the
front just north of our area overnight. We can expect to see some
isolated showers and storms across the northern portions of our
cwa going into the morning hours as the frontal boundary becomes
situated along the HWY-82 corridor. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the the low to mid 70s and winds to be southerly at 5
to 10 mph. /KP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Through Wednesday: As a weak shortwave moves across the region,
scattered showers are ongoing mainly across eastern MS early
this afternoon. Additional development is possible through early
this evening, with isolated strong to severe storms not out of the
question due to sufficient deep layer shear and instability. This
activity is expected to weaken and/or move out of the area
shortly after sunset with mainly dry conditions overnight and a
return of widespread low stratus by Wednesday morning. Above average
warmth will continue on Wednesday, but in spite of this resulting in
abundant instability, lack of a coherent forcing mechanism and
capping will limit precip through the daytime hours. Isolated
showers can`t be ruled out mainly during the afternoon, but many
locations will remain dry through the day with temps approaching the
90 degree mark. /DL/

Wednesday night through Monday: Come Wednesday evening a closed low
over the Plains will be supporting a surface low over the mid
Mississippi valley with a trailing cold front back across the
ArkLaTex. Vigorous convection will be ongoing across northern
Mississippi. As the evening progresses, the cold front will sag
southward and there will be the potential for severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and hail across our northern zones. This
severe potential will shift south and wain through the night as the
cold front shifts south. By sunrise the cold front is expected to be
stalled nearly along the Highway 82 corridor. There will be a low
potential for strong to severe storms during the morning and early
afternoon Thursday but a greater threat for more intense impacts
will become possible by Thursday evening across the southern half
our our CWA. By Thursday evening the stalled front is expected to be
between Highway 82 and Interstate 20. Daytime heating of the warm
moist airmass along and south of the boundary will combine with a
southern stream shortwave moving out of the southern Plains to
develop vigorous convection along the boundary. Atmospheric
parameters will be favorable for damaging wind gusts to 70mph and
hail to the size of golf balls. Model consensus moves this activity
into our western most zones by late afternoon/early evening before
sweeping east along and just south of the boundary. In addition,
locally heavy rain will be possible leading to minor runoff issues
in the poor drainage areas. A deepening northern stream trough will
help move the front and convection south of our forecast area Friday.

By Friday evening the cold front is expected to be pushing off the
Gulf coast. A subtle shortwave within the continued west to northwest
flow aloft is expected to move across the region but will have little
moisture to work with. No additional precipitation is expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal and in the 50s for morning
lows Saturday. With continued northwest flow aloft and a surface
high shifting east across the region Saturday, cooler than normal
and dry weather is expected to continue through Saturday night but
temperatures will warm back above normal Sunday as weak shortwave
ridging moves over our region and return flow increases. Moisture
will continue to increase into Monday and rain chances will return
in our west prior to sunrise ahead of the next low pressure system
to affect our CWA Monday and Monday night. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Persistent southerly flow will continue to drive the cycle of late
night/morning stratus development during this forecast period.
Expect MVFR category ceilings for the most part, but IFR categories
will be likely around daybreak at mainly eastern/southern sites.
As has been the case, mixing will lead to improvement during the
mid/late morning and VFR conditions along with gusty southerly
surface wind should prevail during the afternoon and evening.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  73  89  65 /  10  30  50  70
Meridian      92  71  91  64 /  20  20  60  70
Vicksburg     90  72  90  65 /  10  30  30  60
Hattiesburg   91  73  91  67 /  10  10  30  70
Natchez       90  72  91  64 /   0  10  30  60
Greenville    89  71  86  64 /  10  70  30  50
Greenwood     89  70  86  62 /  20  70  50  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

KP/DL/22/EC