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000
FXUS64 KJAN 150149 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
849 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
OVERALL QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. H5 UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND CLOUD
FREE AS PWATS HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 1.0 INCHES PER 00Z KJAN SOUNDING.
TEMPS SEEMED TO BE FALLING QUICKER AND THUS MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MENMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAY BREAK
SATURDAY AT ECNTRL AND SE LOCATIONS BUT THIS WILL CLEAR BY 9 AM.
/19/03/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BUILT INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SITS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIRMASS...COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S.  QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALL DOWN
AROUND 70. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
FACT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BEING CLOSER TO...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN...SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGER TROUGH SITUATED DOWN THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. LAST NIGHTS MODELS SHOWED IT STALLING
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW IT STALLING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HELP BECOME A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AMPLE
INSTABILITY...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE MAY
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. PW
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.8-2.1 INCHES WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WANTS TO TRY TO EDGE BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BUT WE REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE THING INTERESTING TO NOTE AS WELL IS THAT THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN INTO MEXICO ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR
WEATHER...BUT IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  91  71  93 /   0   0  10  15
MERIDIAN      60  90  70  93 /   0   0   8  14
VICKSBURG     64  91  69  93 /   0   0  11  16
HATTIESBURG   63  92  71  94 /   0   0   7  26
NATCHEZ       65  90  71  92 /   0   0   7  19
GREENVILLE    64  92  71  94 /   0   0  12  20
GREENWOOD     62  91  70  93 /   0   0  11  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/03/19/28