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000
FXUS64 KJAN 251522
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1022 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The forecast looks to remain on track for this morning. Southerly
flow will continue to increase as ridging continues to build from
the southeast. At the surface, a shortwave disturbance to our
northwill bring isolated shower and storm potential across the
Hwy 82 corridor this afternoon. This looks to be fairly short lived
as the frontal boundary stalls over the Middle MS Valley/Ozarks
region this afternoon. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to
middle 80s this afternoon. /AJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today and Tonight:32

Patchy fog will be possible across southern parts of the CWA during
the early morning hours; however, any fog that develops is
expected to dissipate after sunrise. A stalled cold front is
expected to linger over northern portions of the area throughout
the day, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms possibilities
to areas along and north of HWY 82 and northeast MS. Severe
weather is not anticipated with this disturbance. Elsewhere, quiet
conditions are expected for areas along and south of I-20. High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Rain chances will begin to diminish for northern areas during the
evening hours as the stalled frontal boundary transition into a
warm front and lift northward out of the CWA. Skies are expected
to be partly cloud and overnight low temperatures are expected to
be range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. /SW/

Friday through Wednesday: A warm and rather moist weather pattern
will persist through the long range forecast as a ridge maintains
it`s strong presence over the eastern third of the CONUS. The
ridge will deflect most shortwave trough energy to the northwest
of the forecast area with rain chances limited for us, but at
least one stronger shortwave trough should get close enough to
initiate a significant convective system over the Delta region by
late Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of a surface cold
front. Beyond this point, there is divergence in the global model
guidance on how to handle the MCS activity, so confidence is low
concerning QPF placement.

Rainfall amounts could be quite heavy in any case as deep layer
moisture is expected to circulate around the ridge and move along a
huge fetch of warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic waters. Meanwhile,
greater deep layer shear and instability should remain mostly west
of the forecast area, and likely unsupportive of more than a low-end
strong to severe storm threat early next week in our area. As we go
into the middle of next week, a stronger ridge should build more
squarely over Mississippi Valley region, and this would bring warmer
conditions with highs potentially approaching 90 F just beyond this
long range period. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period for the
most part. Early morning fog will dissipate shortly with boundary
layer mixing, and urface wind will be mostly light from the
southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  62  85  68 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      83  61  86  65 /  20  10   0   0
Vicksburg     84  63  85  68 /  10   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   86  61  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       84  62  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    81  65  82  69 /  20  20  10  20
Greenwood     80  63  84  68 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/EC/SW